Saturday, December 1, 2007

Glossary of Terms




A

ability-to-pay-principle – the idea that it is fair for people to pay taxes based on their capability to handle the financial burden.

absolute advantage – a theory that suggests two trading partners can benefit from trade if each partner specializes in the production of the good or service it can produce with fewer resources than its partner and trades it for the other product. The theory was popularized by Adam Smith in his book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, which was published in 1776.

abundant – plentiful; widely available.

accountant – someone who prepares and inspects the tax reports and other financial records of individuals or businesses.

accounting – the preparation and inspection of financial reports.

aggregate demand (AD) – overall spending on newly produced goods and services in the economy. Aggregate demand is composed of consumption (C), investment (I), government purchases (G), and net exports (X-M).

aggressive growth stock – a share of ownership in a relatively small corporation without a long history of profitability.

allocation – distribution.

asset – a financial claim or piece of property that is a store of value.

autarky – the absence of trade.

average tax rate – the total taxes paid divided by total income.


B

baby boom generation – the demographic bulge in the population caused by an increase in the number of births between 1946 and 1964.

bank – a financial institution that accepts deposits and creates loans. See commercial bank.

bank accounts – deposits in commercial banks or similar institutions, such as credit unions.

bank, commercial – a financial institution that attempts to make a profit by paying depositors little or no interest and lending a portion of the deposits to borrowers at moderate to high rates of interest.

Bank of Canada – the central bank of Canada. It oversees the banking system and regulates the quantity of money in the Canadian economy.
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/

Bank of England – the central bank of the United Kingdom. It oversees the banking system and regulates the quantity of money in the British economy.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

Bank of Japan – the central bank of Japan. It oversees the banking system and regulates the quantity of money in the Japanese economy.
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/

Bank of the United States – the first central bank of the United States. It was created in 1791 and abolished in 1811.

bankruptcy risk – the relative likelihood that a firm or institution goes bankrupt and does not pay the rate of return it promised investors.

barter – the exchange of a good or service for another good or service.

base year – the year that is used as the comparison year when calculating an index. The base year is the year from which prices are used to calculate the value of output.

basket of goods – a collection of products used to calculate a price index.

benefits principle – the idea that it is fair for people to pay taxes based on the benefits they receive from the provided government service.

black market – an illegal market.

blue chip stock – a share of ownership in a large well-established corporation with a record of consistent earnings over time.

blue-collar worker – an adult who performs work that involves manual labor, is paid hourly wages, and dresses in clothes that may become heavily soiled.

Board of Governors – the seven-member committee that sets policy for the Federal Reserve System. Each governor is appointed to a 14-year term by the President of the United with confirmation by the U.S. Senate.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/

bond – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the issuer of the bond.

bond, corporate – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the corporation that issued the bond. Corporate bonds are issued by corporations that desire to borrow money directly from investors rather than through a financial intermediary, such as a commercial bank.

bond, government – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the government that issued the bond.

bond, junk – a corporate bond issued by a company with high bankruptcy risk.

bond, municipal – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the state or local government that issued the bond. Municipal bonds frequently provide investors with tax breaks.

budget – an itemized plan of revenues and expenditures for a given period of time.

budget balance – the difference between revenues and expenditures.

budget deficit – the amount by which expenditures exceed revenues. The federal government’s budget deficit is the amount by which government spending exceeds its revenues. These deficits are financed by borrowing money, which becomes a debt obligation for future generations.

budget surplus – the amount by which revenues exceed expenditures. The federal government’s budget surplus is the amount by which government revenues exceeds its spending.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) – the federal government agency that collects, analyzes and publishes U.S. macroeconomic and labor market statistical data.
http://www.bls.gov/

Bush, George Herbert Walker – the 41st President of the United States who served from 1989 to 1993. He is the father of George Walker Bush.

Bush, George Walker – the 43rd President of the United States who served from 2001 to 2009. He is the son of George Herbert Walker Bush.

business – a company that produces goods or services, usually in an effort to make a profit.

business administration – the study of general business principles and practices.

business cycle – the natural fluctuations in the economy.

business firm – a company that produces goods or services, usually in an effort to make a profit.


C

capital – anything man-made that increases productivity. Capital may also refer to physical capital, human capital, technology, or financial capital, depending on the context.

capital, financial – the money or other financial assets used to purchase physical capital, human capital, or technology.

capital gains – the increase in the value of an asset, such as stock, over time.

capital, human – the education, skills, and training that make workers more productive.

capital, physical – anything tangible and man-made that makes workers more productive.

capitalist – a financier who invests in a business by providing it with significant money or other financial assets.

Carter, James (Jimmy) Earl, Jr. – the 39th President of the United States who served from 1977 to 1981.

central bank – an institution that oversees the banking system and regulates the quantity of money in an economy.

certificates of deposit (CDs) – financial instruments that promise to pay the purchaser a specified fixed rate of interest over a designated period of time if the purchaser promises not to withdraw the funds.

Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – the individual who oversees the operation of the Fed and thus has primary responsibility for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/

check – a draft that serves as a written order for a bank to pay a specified amount from funds deposited in an account at the bank.
checkable deposit – money deposited in a checking account at a commercial bank or similar financial institution.

checking account – a bank account that allows checks to be written against the amount of money deposited in the account.

circular-flow diagram – a visual model of the economy that illustrates how households and businesses interact through markets for products and markets for resources.

Classical economics – the system of economic thought, predominant prior to the Great Depression, that suggests the economy will correct any problems, such as unemployment or inflation, without any government intervention.

Clinton, William Jefferson (Bill) – the 42nd President of the United States who served from 1993 to 2001.

coins – hard materials, typically metals, with markings that designate their denominations for use as money.

collective bargaining – the process by which unions and business firms agree on the terms of employment.

command – an economic system in which one person or a small group of people allocates economic resources for a larger group of people.

commercial bank – a financial institution, chartered by the federal or state government, that generates income primarily by accepting deposits from the general public and using these funds to create loans. Commercial banks pay depositors little or no interest and lend a portion of the deposits to borrowers at moderate to high rates of interest.

commodity money – money that has intrinsic value. It can be used for something other than money. Gold and silver coins are examples of commodity money.

common resource – a product that is rival, but not excludable. One person’s use of a common resource diminishes the amount available for others to use and it is difficult to prevent people from using it. Fish in the Chesapeake Bay are an example of a common resource.

comparative advantage – a theory that suggests two trading partners can benefit from trade if each trading partner produces and trades away the product or service it can produce at a smaller opportunity cost than its trading partner. The theory was popularized by David Ricardo in his 1817 book, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.

comparative economics – the field of study that examines the history, theory, and development of various economic systems and structures.

compassionate conservatism – the phrase President George W. Bush used to describe his belief in an active role for the government in helping citizens in need while also reducing the tax revenues to fund government programs. This philosophy led to the largest federal budget deficits in U.S. history.

complementary goods – products that are usually consumed together.

compound interest – a financial return that is earned on a previously earned financial return.

Comptroller of the Currency – the office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury that charters, regulates, and oversees all U.S. national banks and supervises American branches of foreign banks.
http://www.occ.treas.gov/

conservatism, traditional – a political philosophy based on the belief that there are limited opportunities for the government to correct market failures or the belief that the government is ineffective at correcting market failures. Traditional conservatives usually favor a relatively small role for government in regulating the economy. For example, conservatives usually think it is not appropriate for the government to take actions to reduce pollution, poverty, and market power.

constant opportunity costs – the production condition that occurs when the quantity of one product that must be foregone to obtain a unit of another product is the same, regardless of how much has already been produced.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a measure of the price level based on a fixed basket of the goods and services purchased by a typical urban family. It is used to calculate the inflation rate.

consumption (C) – the purchase of newly produced final goods and services by households.

consumption tax – a charge (usually of money) imposed by the government on the purchase or use of a product.

contractionary fiscal policy – attempts to slow the economy by decreasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services through (1) decreased government purchases, or (2) increased taxes to discourage consumption and investment spending. Contractionary fiscal policy can be used to fight inflation.

contractionary macroeconomic policy – the use of fiscal or monetary policies to slow the economy by decreasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Contractionary macroeconomic policy is usually appropriate for fighting inflation.
contractionary monetary policy – attempts by the Federal Reserve System to slow the economy by decreasing the money supply and increasing interest rates in an effort to decrease overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Contractionary monetary policies discourage the creation of loans by commercial banks and thus decrease the money supply.

corporate bond – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the corporation that issued the bond. Corporate bonds are issued by corporations that desire to borrow money directly from investors rather than through a financial intermediary, such as a commercial bank.

corporation – a business firm that has been chartered by a state government as a legal entity. Corporations issues shares of stock that represent pieces of ownership of the business.

cost-benefit analysis – a system for assessing the value of a project by comparing its costs and benefits.

cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) – automatic increases in Social Security benefits to compensate for the loss in purchasing power caused by inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

cost-push inflation – an increase in the price level caused by higher costs of production.

credit union – an institution that provides financial services similar to those offered by commercial banks, such as accepting deposits and making loans, but does not attempt to earn a profit. Credit unions are not-for-profit organizations that provide banking services to members.

currency – paper bills and coins.

Current Population Survey (CPS) – a telephone survey of approximately 60,000 randomly selected adults that is used to calculate several commonly reported measures of labor market conditions.

cyclical unemployment – the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate.
Cyclical unemployment is also called Keynesian unemployment.


D

dartboard fund – a study by Forbes Magazine that picked 28 stocks in the late 1960s by throwing darts at a newspaper listing of stocks, invested $1000 in each stock, and saw them increase in value to over $130,000 by the mid 1980s. This increase was greater than the increase in the value of a majority of mutual funds during the same period of time.

debt – something owed to someone else.

deficit, budget – the amount by which expenditures exceed revenues. The federal government’s budget deficit is the amount by which government spending exceeds its revenues. These deficits are financed by borrowing money, which becomes a debt obligation for future generations.

deflation – a general decrease in the price level.

demand – the relationship between various prices of a product and the corresponding quantity that consumers are willing and able to buy at each of those prices.

demand curve – a graphical representation of demand.

demand deposit – the balance in a checking account at a commercial bank.

demand, law of – states that, other things equal, the quantity demanded of a product decreases when the price of the product increases.

demand-pull inflation – an increase in the price level caused by excess demand for newly produced goods and services. Society’s demand for new products exceeds its ability to produce them.

demanded, quantity – the amount that consumers are willing and able to buy at a particular price.

demand schedule – a tabular representation of demand.

discount – a discount loan.

discount loan – an overnight loan from a regional Federal Reserve Bank to a commercial bank to allow the commercial bank to meet the reserve requirement.

discount rate – the interest rate charged on loans from the regional Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks.

discouraged worker – an individual who would like to work but has stopped looking for a job.

disinflation – the condition that occurs when the inflation rate decreases, but remains positive.

disposable income – the amount of income a person has after the payment of taxes.

diversification – occurs when investors own small pieces of many different financial instruments rather than have all of their investments in one or a few such instruments.

dividend – the portion of a corporation’s profit that is distributed to each stockholder. Dividends are typically paid every three months.

double coincidence of wants – the need for a trader to find a partner who has a product he wants and who wants what he is offering to trade.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – an index of 30 blue-chip stocks that are representative of all large well-established American corporations.

dowry – a marriage gift of money or property from the family of a bride to the bridegroom. A dowry is an example of the allocation of resources by tradition.

durable good – a product that is used over a long period of time, such as a refrigerator, a washing machine, or a car.


E

economic efficiency – the degree to which the largest quantity of output is obtained from a given set of resources.

economic growth – the amount by which a country’s production of goods and services changes over time. Economic growth is a measure of a country’s standard of living. Since people tend to be paid based on their productivity, the value of a country’s output is also the value of the country’s income. Thus, economic growth also measures how a country’s income changes over time.

economic resource – something people use to attempt to satisfy their needs and wants. Economic resources can be divided into three categories: labor, capital, and natural resources.

economic system – a method of resource allocation. Economic systems can be divided into three categories: tradition, command, and markets.

economic system, command – the method of resource allocation that occurs when one person or a small group of people allocates economic resources for a larger group of people.

economic system, market – the method of resource allocation that occurs when economic resources are allocated through the separate decisions of households and business firms as they interact in markets for products and resources.

economic system, tradition – the method of resource allocation based on customs and traditions.

economics – the study of how scarce resources are allocated to satisfy seemingly unlimited needs and wants.

economizing problem – the dilemma created because people’s needs and wants are seemingly unlimited, yet the resources they can use to satisfy those needs and wants are limited.

efficiency – see economic efficiency or tax efficiency.

efficiency, economic – the degree to which the largest quantity of output is obtained from a given set of resources.

efficiency, tax – the degree to which the tax system has a small administrative burden and does not alter people’s behavior.

efficiency wages – market wages that are above the equilibrium wage in an attempt by a business firm to increase worker productivity.

employed – adults who spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.

employment – the condition of spending most of the previous week working at a paid job.

entitlement program – a government program that provides benefits to an indefinite number of recipients who by law are entitled to receive benefits if they meet the eligibility requirements.

entrepreneur – someone who invents a new product that satisfies a want or need of society, improves an existing product, or provides a product in a better or more efficient way.

entrepreneurship – the invention of new products, the improvement of existing products, or the delivery of products in better or more efficient ways.

equilibrium – the price and quantity at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded. Equilibrium is illustrated by the point where the supply and demand curves intersect.

equilibrium price – the price at which the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded. It is represented graphically by the vertical distance between the horizontal axis and the supply and demand curves at the equilibrium quantity.

equilibrium quantity – the quantity supplied and demanded at the equilibrium price. It is represented graphically by the horizontal distance between the vertical axis and the supply and demand curves at the equilibrium price.

equilibrium wage rate – the price of labor at which the quantity of labor supplied equals the quantity of labor demanded.

equities – stocks; shares of ownership in a corporation.

equity – the condition that occurs if a society distributes its economic resources fairly among its people.

equity, horizontal – the idea that taxpayers with similar abilities to pay taxes should pay the same amount.

equity of a tax system – the degree to which the tax burden is distributed fairly among the population.

equity, vertical – the idea that taxpayers with a greater ability to pay taxes should pay larger amounts.

European Union (EU) – the integration of twenty-seven democratic European countries for the pursuit of peace and prosperity. The members of the EU are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
http://europa.eu.int/

excess reserves – the vault cash and deposits at a regional Federal Reserve Bank that commercial banks hold is addition to those held to meet the Federal Reserve System’s requirement that for every dollar of deposits at a bank, a certain fraction must be kept as reserves.

excise tax – a government charge levied on a particular product.

excludable – the characteristic of a product whereby people can be prevented from consuming it.

expansionary fiscal policy – attempts to stimulate the economy by increasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services through (1) increased government purchases (G), or (2) decreased taxes to encourage more consumption (C) and investment (I) spending. Expansionary fiscal policy can be used to fight unemployment. It also promotes economic growth if it generates investment in physical capital, human capital, and technology, which tend to increase productivity.

expansionary macroeconomic policy – the use of fiscal or monetary policies to stimulate the economy by increasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Expansionary macroeconomic policy is usually appropriate for fighting unemployment.
expansionary monetary policy – attempts by the Federal Reserve System to stimulate the economy by increasing the money supply and decreasing interest rates in an effort to increase overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Expansionary monetary policies encourage the creation of loans by commercial banks and thus increase the money supply.

expenses – the total costs of the production of goods or services by a business.

exports (X) – goods and services sold by domestic producers to foreign purchasers.


F

farm price support – a price floor that specifies the minimum price to be charged for a designated agricultural product.

FDIC – see Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Fed – the nickname of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States.

federal budget balance – the difference between federal government revenues and expenditures.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) – the federal government agency that maintains confidence in the U.S. banking system by insuring deposits in commercial banks and thrift institutions for up to $100,000.
http://www.fdic.gov/

federal funds – reserves that are loaned overnight from a commercial bank with excess reserves to a commercial bank with a shortage of reserves.

federal funds rate – the interest rate charged on loans from commercial banks to other commercial banks. The federal funds rate is one half of a percentage point less than the discount rate.

Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) – the 1939 law that authorized the Internal Revenue Service to collect additional taxes from the paychecks of workers to support the Social Security and Medicare programs.

Federal Reserve System – the U.S. central bank, a quasi-government agency that oversees the banking system and conducts monetary policy by influencing the money supply and interest rates and thus affects overall spending in the economy.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the twelve-member Federal Reserve System committee that conducts open market operations to alter the money supply and influence the economy.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/

fiat lux – the motto of Jacksonville University. It is Latin for “let there be light” or “let the light shine.”

fiat money – money that does not have intrinsic value.

FICA – See Federal Insurance Contributions Act.

final products – goods and services that are not used to make other products.

finance – the management of money, credit, and other financial assets.

financial capital – the money or other financial assets used to purchase physical capital, human capital, or technology.

financier – someone who engages in large-scale financial affairs.

fiscal – of or relating to finance or to government revenues, expenditures, and debt.

fiscal policy – taxing and spending by the government.

fiscal policy, contractionary – attempts to slow the economy by decreasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services through (1) decreased government purchases, or (2) increased taxes to discourage consumption and investment spending. Contractionary fiscal policy can be used to fight inflation.

fiscal policy, expansionary – attempts to stimulate the economy by increasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services through (1) increased government purchases (G), or (2) decreased taxes to encourage more consumption (C) and investment (I) spending. Expansionary fiscal policy can be used to fight unemployment. It also promotes economic growth if it generates investment in physical capital, human capital, and technology, which tend to increase productivity.

fiscal policy’s political bias – the eagerness of politicians to conduct expansionary policy by cutting taxes and increasing government purchases and reluctance to conduct contractionary policy, which requires tax increases or reductions in government spending that are politically unpopular.

flat tax – a type of income tax in which every taxpayer is subject to the same marginal tax rate.

FOMC – see Federal Open Market Committee.

food stamp program – a government social program that gives poor families vouchers that they can use to buy food.

Forbes – a commercial magazine devoted to business and personal finance.
http://www.forbes.com/

Forbes, Malcolm Stevenson “Steve”, Jr. – the editor-in-chief of Forbes magazine and U.S. Presidential candidate in the Republican primaries of 1996 and 2000. His candidacies were based primarily on his advocacy of a flat income tax, social conservatism, and supply-side economics.

Ford, Gerald R. – the 38th President of the United States who served from 1974 to 1977.

Fortune 500 – an annual list of the 500 largest U.S. corporations. It is compiled and published by Fortune magazine.

four Ps of marketing – the marketing mix that describes the marketing process: product (conception), price, promotion, and place (distribution).

fractional-reserve banking – a banking system in which banks hold only a fraction of deposits as reserves.

frictional unemployment – unemployment that occurs because it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that best suit their skills and preferences.

future value of an investment – the value a financial asset will have at a particular point in the future. If interest is compounded annually, it can be calculated with the following equation: FV = PV (1 + i)n where FV = future value of the investment; PV = present value of the investment; i = interest rate (i.e., rate of return); and n = number of years.


G

GDP – see gross domestic product.

GDP deflator – a measure of the price level based on all goods and services produced in a country in a particular year. Unlike the CPI and PPI, the GDP deflator is not based on a fixed basket of goods.

GDP per capita – the nominal value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by the country’s population. It is a measure of the average income of a person in the country.

GDP, per capita real – a measure of the real value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing real GDP by the country’s population. It is also a measure of the real value of a country’s income per person.

GDP, real – the value of the total final output of a country's economy without the influence of inflation. Real GDP is the output of a country’s final goods and services in constant dollars.

GDP, real per capita – a measure of the real value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing real GDP by the country’s population. It is also a measure of the real value of a country’s income per person.

GNP – see gross national product.

The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money – the most famous book by British economist John Maynard Keynes. It was published in 1936 and suggests the government should play an active role in managing the economy.

good – a tangible commodity or piece of merchandise that is produced for sale.

good, durable – a product that is used over a long period of time, such as a refrigerator, a washing machine, or a car.

good, non-durable – a product that is consumed over a short period of time, such as food or clothing.

government – a public institution that provides services that are primarily financed through taxation. Most government services are designed to correct perceived failures of the market system to provide socially desirable outcomes.

government bond – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the government that issued the bond.

government purchases (G) – government payments made in exchange for currently produced goods and services. They include the wages and salaries of current government workers and the products, such as vehicles, office supplies, and weapons, used by the government in its provision of public services. Government purchases do not include transfer payments.

government security – a debt instrument (such as a bond) issued by the U.S. Treasury to finance the budget deficits of the federal government.

Great Depression – a period of severe global economic hardship during the 1930s.

gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country during a given period (usually a year).

gross national product (GNP) – the total value of all final goods and services produced in a given period of time (usually a year) by businesses owned by citizens of a country.


H

horizontal equity – the principle that taxpayers with similar abilities to pay taxes should pay the same amount.

household – a social unit comprised of those living together in the same dwelling.

human capital – the education, skills, and training that make workers more productive.

hyperinflation – extreme inflation in which the inflation rate exceeds 50% per month.


I

imports (M) – goods and services sold by foreign producers to domestic purchasers.

incentive – something that induces a particular behavior or action.

income effect – the increase in a consumer’s purchasing power when the price of a product decreases.

income security – the category of U.S. federal government spending comprised of transfer payments to poor individuals and families.

increasing opportunity costs – the production condition that occurs when the quantity of one product that must be foregone to obtain a unit of another product increases as more is produced.

indexation – the use of a law or contract to automatically correct a dollar amount for the effects of inflation.

inferior good – a product for which an increase in income decreases demand.

inflation – a general increase in the level of most prices in an economy.

inflation rate – a measurement of how quickly prices are rising in an economy. It is typically reported as the annual percentage increase in the price level.

interest – the compensation from the borrower or receiver of funds to the lender or depositor of the funds.

interest rate – the rate of return earned on an investment. It represents compensation from the borrower or receiver of funds to the lender or depositor of the funds.

interest rate risk – the loss of a higher potential rate of return or the loss of the value of a financial asset if interest rates increase in the future.

intermediate product – a good or service that is an input in the production of another good or service.

Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – the U.S. federal government agency that is responsible for the collection of income taxes. It is part of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
http://www.irs.gov/

investment (I) – the purchase of capital equipment, inventories, and structures. Most investment is done by businesses. The purchase of a home by a household, however, is also considered to be investment.


J

job search – the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their skills and preferences.

Johnson, Lyndon B. – the 36th President of the United States who served from 1963 to 1969.

junk bonds – corporate bonds issued by companies with high bankruptcy risk.


K

Kennedy, John F. – the 35th President of the United States who served from 1961 to 1963.

Keynes, John Maynard – a British economist (1883-1946) who popularized the idea that the government should play an active role in managing the economy.

Keynesian unemployment – the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate.
It is also called cyclical unemployment.


L

labor – human effort, both physical and mental. Examples of labor are teachers, bankers, construction workers, steelworkers, plumbers, entrepreneurs, and managers.

labor force – the total number of adult workers in an economy, including both the employed and the unemployed.

labor force participation rate – the percentage of the adult population in the labor force.

labor market – the resource market in which households provide their human effort for the production of goods or services in exchange for compensation by a business.

labor union – a worker association that bargains with an employer over wages, salaries, and working conditions.

land – the economic nickname for all natural resources; anything provided by nature.

law of demand – states that, other things equal, the quantity demanded of a product decreases when the price of the product increases.

law of supply – states that, other things equal, the quantity supplied of a product increases when the price of the product increases.

liability – a debt. It is something that is owned by or owed to someone else.

liberalism, traditional – a political philosophy based on the belief that there are many opportunities for the government to correct market failures and thus there is a relatively large role for the government to regulate the economy. For example, liberals usually think it is appropriate for the government to take actions to reduce pollution, poverty, and market power. Traditional liberalism is also called social liberalism.

liquidity – the relative ease and speed with which an asset can be converted into money.

lump-sum tax – a tax that is the same monetary amount for every taxpayer.


M

M1 – the narrowest definition of the U.S. money supply. It includes currency, travelers’ checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits.

M2 – a definition of the U.S. money supply that includes currency, travelers’ checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, money market mutual funds, and small denomination certificates of deposit

M3 – a definition of the U.S. money supply that includes currency, travelers’ checks, demand deposits and other checkable deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, money market mutual funds, small denomination certificates of deposit, and large denomination certificates of deposit.  The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System stopped publishing the M3 monetary aggregate and its components on March 23, 2006.  

macroeconomic policy – the government’s use of monetary and fiscal policies to influence the overall economy by affecting overall spending on newly produced goods and services.

macroeconomic policy, contractionary – the use of fiscal or monetary policies to slow the economy by decreasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Contractionary macroeconomic policy is usually appropriate for fighting inflation.

macroeconomic policy, expansionary – the use of fiscal or monetary policies to stimulate the economy by increasing overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Expansionary macroeconomic policy is usually appropriate for fighting unemployment.

macroeconomic policy goals – the objectives the government tries to achieve when it influences the overall economy. The three primary macroeconomic policy goals are economic growth, low unemployment, and low inflation.

macroeconomic policy tools – the monetary and fiscal policies used by the government to influence the economy by affecting overall spending on newly produced goods and services.

macroeconomics – the field of economics that studies issues of resource allocation that affect the entire economy, such as economic growth, unemployment, and inflation.

management – the allocation of economic resources.

manager – someone who allocates economic resources. Successful managers are efficient in their use of labor, capital, and natural resources.

Mankiw, Gregory – the economist who served as Chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from May 2003 to February 2005.

marginal tax rate – the tax paid on an additional dollar of income.

market – an economic system that uses prices to allocate economic resources through the separate decisions of households and business.

market failure – the situation in which the marketplace fails to provide a socially desirable outcome.

market power – the situation in which one firm or a group of firms has enough influence over a market that prices can be increased above the competitive level. Market structures that exhibit market power are monopoly and oligopoly.

market price – the price actually charged in a market. It may or may not be the same as the equilibrium price.

market risk – the relative likelihood that an investment will lose value because of fluctuations in the economy.

market wage rate – the price paid for a worker’s labor. It may or may not be the same as the equilibrium wage rate.

marketer – someone who promotes the purchase or sale of a product.

marketing – the process of informing society about products in an attempt to convince potential consumers to purchase them.

marketing, four Ps of – the marketing mix that describes the marketing process: product (conception), price, promotion, and place (distribution).

marketing mix – the four Ps that describes the marketing process: product (conception), price, promotion, and place (distribution).

Medicaid – the federal government entitlement program that pays medical bills for low-income Americans.

Medicare – the federal government entitlement program that pays medical bills for elderly Americans.

medium of exchange – something, such as money, that facilitates trade.

menu costs of inflation – the costs associated with changing the prices of the products sold by a business.

mercantilism – a philosophy that suggests a country can benefit from trade only at the expense of its trading partners. Mercantilism views trade as a zero-sum game.

microeconomics – the field of economics that deals with issues that affect individual markets and business firms, such as market structure, profit maximization, and consumer theory.

minimum wage – a price floor that specifies the lowest price that employers can legally pay for labor.

minimum wage law – see minimum wage.

monetary base – the amount of currency in circulation or held as reserves.

monetary policy – the Federal Reserve System's management of the nation’s money supply, interest rates, and banking system to influence the economy by affecting overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Monetary policy is the most commonly used tool of macroeconomic policy.

monetary policy, contractionary – attempts by the Federal Reserve System to slow the economy by decreasing the money supply and increasing interest rates in an effort to decrease overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Contractionary monetary policies discourage the creation of loans by commercial banks and thus decrease the money supply.

monetary policy, expansionary – attempts by the Federal Reserve System to stimulate the economy by increasing the money supply and decreasing interest rates in an effort to increase overall spending on newly produced goods and services. Expansionary monetary policies encourage the creation of loans by commercial banks and thus increase the money supply.

money – anything that is generally accepted to serve as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account.

money GDP – the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a period of time (usually a year). It is another name for gross domestic product (GDP).

money market accounts – money market funds offered by commercial banks and similar financial institutions.

money market funds – mutual funds that invest in short-term loans or other financial instruments that are similar to certificates of deposit.

money market mutual funds – money market funds.

money multiplier – the amount of money the banking system generates with each dollar of reserves. The money multiplier is the reciprocal of the reserve ratio.

money supply – the amount of money in the economy. The money supply can be defined in various ways, such as M1, M2, and M3.

monopoly – a market structure in which there is only one seller of the product and consequently the firm determines market price.

municipal bond – a financial instrument that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the state or local government that issued the bond. Municipal bonds frequently provide investors with tax breaks.

mutual fund – a financial asset in which investors pool their investment funds and have them invested under the direction of a manager or management team.


N


NASDAQ – the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ) system. It is one of the world’s leading equities market, where the stocks of American companies are bought and sold by brokerage firms and other large institutional investors.
http://www.nasdaq.com/

NASDAQ Composite Index – a measure of the stock market that represents the stocks of small or less-known companies that are traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ) system.

national defense – the portion of federal government expenditures that consists of the salaries of military personnel and civilians employed by the Department of Defense plus the purchases of goods and services to support the military.

natural monopoly – a market structure in which it is natural for there to be only one seller of the product because of extremely high fixed costs of production. Public utilities, such as electricity suppliers that must build a power plant or a hydroelectric dam, are examples of natural monopolies. Natural monopolies produce goods or services that are excludable but not rival.

natural rate of unemployment – the normal rate of unemployment around which the unemployment rate fluctuates. The natural rate of unemployment is currently estimated to be 5.5%.

natural resource – anything provided by nature that can be used to satisfy human needs and wants. Examples of natural resources are land, trees, minerals, and fish.

need – something that is required for human sustenance, such as food, water, clothing, and shelter.

net exports (NE) – the difference between the value of a country’s exports (X) and imports (M).

net interest – the amount the government pays on loans from the public.

net worth – the difference between a business firm’s (or an individual’s) assets and liabilities.

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) – the world’s leading equities market, where the stocks of large, well-established American companies are bought and sold by brokerage firms and other large institutional investors.
http://www.nyse.com/

Nixon, Richard M. – the 37th President of the United States who served from 1969 to 1974.

nominal – not adjusted for inflation.

nominal GDP – the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a period of time (usually a year). It is another name for gross domestic product (GDP).

nominal rate of return – the stated rate of return of an investment.

nonrenewable resource – a natural resource that cannot be replaced or its replacement requires an extremely long period of time.

normal good – a product for which an increase in income increases demand.

normative analysis – descriptions of the world the way it should be. Normative analysis is based on opinions.

not in the labor force – people who do not have a paid job and are not looking for one, such as retirees, homemakers, and full-time students.


O

oligopoly – a market structure in which there only a few sellers of the product, and consequently the firms have some influence over the market price.

open market operations – the purchases and sales of government securities by the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to or from the general public.

open market purchases – the purchases of government securities by the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from the general public.

open market sales – the sales of government securities by the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to the general public.

opportunity cost – what is sacrificed or foregone when a choice is made.

opportunity costs, constant – the production condition that occurs when the quantity of one product that must be foregone to obtain a unit of another product is the same, regardless of how much has already been produced.

opportunity costs, increasing – the production condition that occurs when the quantity of one product that must be foregone to obtain a unit of another product increases as more is produced.


P

paper airplane models – models that make extremely simplifying assumptions about the real world to illustrate basic principles that underlie complex phenomena.

paper bills – paper or cloth notes used as money with markings that designate their denominations.

per capita GDP – the nominal value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by the country’s population. It is a measure of the average income of a person in the country.

per capita real GDP – a measure of the real value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing real GDP by the country’s population.

physical capital – anything tangible and man-made that makes labor more productive. Examples of physical capital are computers, cars, pencils, microwave ovens, factories, and machinery.

political bias of fiscal policy – the eagerness of politicians to conduct expansionary policy by cutting taxes and increasing government purchases and reluctance to conduct contractionary policy, which requires tax increases or reductions in government spending.

positive analysis – descriptions of the world the way it is. Positive analysis is based on facts.

post hoc, ergo procter hoc – a Latin phrase that translates as "it happened after, so it was caused by". It is a fallacy of logic.

price – the amount of money or other thing of value traded in exchange for a good or service.

price ceiling – the maximum price that can be legally charged in a market. Rent controls for apartments are an example of a price ceiling.

price control – a legal restriction on the prices charged in the market for a product or resource.

price floor – a legal minimum price at which a product can be sold. The minimum wage is an example of a price floor.

price index – an estimate of the price level that is used to measure inflation. Three commonly used price indices in the United States are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the GDP deflator.

price level – the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy. It is approximated by a price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), or the GDP deflator.

price, market – the price actually charged in the marketplace. It may or may not be the same as the equilibrium price.

private good – a product that is rival and excludable. One person’s use of a private good diminishes the amount available for others to use and it is possible to prevent people from using it. Most products sold at a shopping mall are private goods.

Producer Price Index (PPI) – a family of indices that measures the price level based on a fixed basket of all goods and services produced and sold by American businesses. It includes consumer products and goods and services used as inputs in the production of other products.

product – a good or service that is the output of human labor.

production – the creation of a good or service.

production possibilities curve (PPC) – a diagram that illustrates the possible production points for an economy based on its resources and technology. It is also called a production possibilities frontier (PPF).

production possibilities frontier (PPF) – a diagram that illustrates the possible production points for an economy based on its resources and technology. It is also called a production possibilities curve (PPC).

productivity – the amount of output that can be produced in an hour of a worker’s time.

profit – revenues minus expenses.

progressive tax – a tax for which high-income taxpayers pay a larger percentage of their income than do low-income taxpayers.

proportional tax – a tax for which high-income and low-income taxpayers pay the same percentage of income.

prospectus – a legal document that provides information to potential investors as required by law.

public debt – the net amount of money borrowed by the federal government. As such, it is also the accumulation of federal budget surpluses and deficits over time.

public finance – the field of economics that studies government revenues, expenditures, budgets, and debt.

public good – a product that is not rival and not excludable. One person’s use of a public good does not diminishes the amount available for others to use and it is difficult to prevent people from using it. National defense is an example of a public good.

purchasing power – the value of the products a person is able to buy with a given amount of money.


Q

quality of life – the degree of satisfaction in a person’s life. It is not the same as the standard of living because it considers things in addition to material possessions and wealth.

quantity – the amount of a good or service that is traded in exchange for money or another thing of value.

quantity demanded – the amount of a good or service that consumers are willing and able to buy at a particular price.

quantity supplied – the amount of a good or service that producers are willing and able to sell at a particular price.

quantity theory of money – a theory that suggests there is a relationship between the supply of money and the inflation rate. If the money supply increases faster than an economy’s output, a likely outcome is inflation.


R

rate of return – the payment an investor earns from engaging in an investment activity. It is sometimes referred to as the interest rate.

rate of return, nominal – the stated rate of return of an investment.

rate of return, real – the nominal rate of return adjusted for inflation.

Reagan, Ronald W. – the 40th President of the United States who served from 1981 to 1989.

Reaganomics – the supply-side economic theory upon which President Ronald Reagan based his economic policies. A notable characteristic of Reaganomics was the reduction in marginal income tax rates that led to large budget deficits.

real – adjusted for inflation. Real data are reported using prices from a common base year.

real GDP – the value of the total final output of a country's economy without the influence of inflation. Real GDP is the output of a country’s final goods and services in constant dollars.

real GDP per capita – the real value of a country’s output per person. It is calculated by dividing real GDP by the country’s population.

real estate – land, houses, and other buildings.

real rate of return – the nominal rate of return adjusted for inflation.

regional Federal Reserve Banks – the Federal Reserve System institutions that oversee the health of the U.S. banking system. The 12 regional Federal Reserve banks also clear checks, issue new currency, withdraw damaged currency from circulation, evaluate some merger applications, administer and make discount loans to banks in their districts, act as liaisons between the business community and the Federal Reserve System, examine state member banks, collect data on local business conditions, and research topics related to the conduct of monetary policy.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/

regressive tax – a tax for which high-income taxpayers pay a smaller percentage of their income than do low-income taxpayers.

renewable resource – a natural resource that is capable of being replaced in a relatively short period of time.

rent control – a price ceiling that specifies the highest price that landlords can legally charge for rent on a designated apartment or house.

required reserve ratio (rr) – the fraction or percentage of deposits that commercial banks are required to hold in the form of reserves.

required reserves – the vault cash and deposits at a regional Federal Reserve Bank that commercial banks hold to meet the Federal Reserve System’s requirement that for every dollar of deposits at a bank, a certain fraction must be kept as reserves.

reserve ratio (R) – the fraction of deposits that banks hold as reserves.

reserves – a commercial bank’s deposits in accounts at a regional Federal Reserve Bank plus currency held in the bank’s vault.

reserves, excess – the vault cash and deposits at a regional Federal Reserve Bank that commercial banks hold is addition to those held to meet the Federal Reserve System’s requirement that for every dollar of deposits at a bank, a certain fraction must be kept as reserves.

reserves, required – the vault cash and deposits at a regional Federal Reserve Bank that commercial banks hold to meet the Federal Reserve System’s requirement that for every dollar of deposits at a bank, a certain fraction must be kept as reserves.

resource, natural – anything provided by nature that can be used to satisfy human needs and wants. Examples of natural resources are land, trees, minerals, and fish.

resource, nonrenewable – a natural resource that cannot be replaced or its replacement requires an extremely long period of time.

resource, renewable – a natural resource that can be replaced in a relatively short period of time.

retained earnings – the portion of a company’s profits that are not distributed to the owners of the business.

return – the payment an investor earns from engaging in an investment activity. It is sometimes referred to as the interest rate.

revenues – the monetary income received by a business in exchange for goods or services.

Ricardo, David – the British economist (1772-1823) who popularized the concept of comparative advantage in his 1817 book, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation.

risk – the relative likelihood that an investment will lose value.

risk-averse – the dislike of uncertainty.

risk, bankruptcy – the relative likelihood that the firm or institution in which you invest goes bankrupt and does not pay you the return they promised you.

risk, interest rate – the loss of a higher potential rate of return or the loss of the value of the financial asset if interest rates increase in the future.

risk-lover – a person who prefers the uncertainty of an outcome.

risk, market – the relative likelihood that your investment will lose value because of fluctuations in the economy.

rival – the characteristic of a product whereby one person’s use of the good or service decreases the amount available for use by other people.

Robinson, Joan Violet – a British economist (1903-1983) who published books and papers on a wide variety of economic topics, such as imperfect competition, capital, money, employment, economic growth, production, trade, Marxian economics, and economic philosophy. She is considered by many people to be the first great female economist. She said, "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."

Roosevelt, Franklin D. – the 32nd President of the United States who served from 1933 to 1945. His New Deal social programs represented a significant increase in the government’s attempts to correct perceived market failures.

rule of 70 – states that if a variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.

Rust Belt – the heavily industrialized area of the upper Midwestern United States that contains older factories, many of which are closed.


S

S&P 500 – an index of 500 stocks that is a broad measure of the overall stock market. The index was developed by Standard & Poor’s, a company which produces and sells information about financial assets and markets.

salary – a fixed payment made regularly to a worker in exchange for labor.

savings – the portion of a person’s income that is retained or invested for use in the future.

savings account – a bank account designed to accept monetary deposits as a store of value and unit of account, but not as a medium of exchange in the near future. Commercial banks pay savings account depositors a rate of return, called the interest rate, for the use of their deposited funds to make loans.

savings and loan association (S & L) – a financial institution that specializes in savings accounts and home mortgage loans. Most savings and loan associations offer the same services as commercial banks and credit unions.

scarcity – an insufficient amount.

securities – stocks and bonds.

services – products that typically do not create a tangible commodity. Examples of services are health care, haircuts, insurance, banking and legal services and entertainment. Over half of U.S. gross domestic product is services.

shareholders – the owners of a corporation. Because shareholders own shares of stock, they are also called stockholders.

shoe leather costs of inflation – the wasted time and inconveniences caused when inflation encourages people to reduce their holdings of currency.

shortage – the amount by which the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied.

Silicon Valley – a region southeast of San Francisco, California, that is known for its computer and other high-technology industries.

sin tax – an excise tax designed to discourage the consumption of “sinful” products, such as alcohol and tobacco.

Smith, Adam – the Scottish political economist and philosopher (1723-1790) who popularized the concept of absolute advantage in his 1776 book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

social insurance – a government insurance program designed to provide economic assistance to people in need, such as the unemployed, elderly and disabled.

Social Security – the federal government entitlement program, established by the Social Security Act of 1935, to ensure that elderly and disabled Americans and their dependents have enough income to buy the necessities of life. The program imposes taxes on wage earners and employers, and provides old-age, survivors’, disability, and medical benefits to workers.
http://www.ssa.gov/

specialization – concentration on the production of particular goods and services.

spin-doctors – political publicists who use favorable correlations to trumpet the value of their candidates while ignoring correlations that put their candidates in an unfavorable light.

stagflation – the existence of high inflation and high unemployment at the same time. During a period of stagflation, the economy produces less output, the average person’s income declines, and the prices of most products increase. The name is a combination of stagnation and inflation.

Standard & Poor’s – a company that produces and sells information about financial assets and markets.

standard of living – the value of the goods and services available to an individual, group, or country.

stock – a financial asset that represents a share of ownership of a corporation.

stock, aggressive growth – a share of ownership in a relatively small corporation without a long history of profitability.

stock, blue chip – a share of ownership in a large well-established corporation with a record of consistent earnings over time.

stockholders – the owners of a corporation. Because stockholders own shares of stock, they are also called shareholders.

store of value – something, such as money, used to hold purchasing power for use at a later time.

strike – the organized withdrawal of labor from a business firm by a union.

structural unemployment – unemployment that occurs when workers have job skills that do not match the skills required by available jobs.

structures – buildings.

subsidy – monetary assistance from the government to promote an activity deemed advantageous to the public.

substitute goods – products that people use interchangeably.

substitution effect – the increase in the consumption of a product as its price decreases because some consumers will buy this product as a substitute for something else.

supplied, quantity – the amount that producers are willing and able to sell at a particular price.

supply – the relationship between various prices of a product and the corresponding quantity that producers are willing and able to sell at each of those prices.

supply and demand analysis – an economic modeling technique that examines how the price system allocates resources in a market-based economy.

supply curve – a graphical representation of supply.

supply, law of – states that, other things equal, the quantity supplied of a product increases when the price of the product increases.

supply schedule – a tabular representation of supply.

supply-side economics – an economic theory based on the relationship between tax rates and the incentives to work, save, invest, and engage in tax-avoidance. Supply-side economics suggests a reduction in marginal tax rates may be beneficial to the economy.

surplus – the amount by which the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded.


T

T-account – a simplified balance sheet with lines in the form of a T that lists only the changes that occur in the balance sheet items from some initial position.

tangible commodity – a product that can be touched or held, such as an apple, a sweater, or a house.

tariff – a tax imposed on a product imported from a foreign country or exported to a foreign country. A tariff is also called a duty.

tax – a charge (usually of money) imposed by the government on people or property.

tax benefit – the benefits some investments provide in the form of reduced tax liability. For example, when state and local governments borrow money by selling municipal bonds, the interest on those investments is frequently exempt from state income taxes.

tax breaks – the benefits some investments provide in the form of reduced tax liability. For example, when state and local governments borrow money by selling municipal bonds, the interest on those investments is frequently exempt from state income taxes.

tax efficiency – the relative costs a tax imposes on taxpayers beyond the monetary payments from taxpayers to the government. These costs include the effect on incentives and behavior and the administrative burden of complying with the tax laws.

tax equity – the fairness of the distribution of the tax burden among the population.

tax, flat – a tax in which every taxpayer is subject to the same marginal tax rate.

tax, lump-sum – a tax that is the same monetary amount for every person.

tax, progressive – a tax for which high-income taxpayers pay a larger percentage of their income than do low-income taxpayers.

tax, proportional – a tax for which high-income and low-income taxpayers pay the same percentage of income.

tax rate, average – the total taxes paid divided by total income.

tax rate, marginal – the tax paid on an additional dollar of income.

tax, regressive – a tax for which high-income taxpayers pay a smaller percentage of their income than do low-income taxpayers.

technology – the knowledge and methodology of means of production.

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) – a government social program that transfers income from taxpayers to poor families. TANF is the primary U.S. welfare program. It is administered by the Office of Family Assistance, which is part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.


terms of trade – the price at which a product is traded.

"Too much money chasing too few goods" – an expression that describes demand-pull inflation, which is an increase in the price level caused by excess demand for newly produced goods and services. Society’s demand for new products exceeds its ability to produce them.

trade – the exchange of goods and services for other products, money, or other compensation.

trade adjustment assistance – a federal program that provides financial assistance to workers in industries injured by import competition.

tradeoff – an exchange of one thing in return for another.

tradition – an economic system that allocates economic resources by custom.

traditional conservative – a person who believes there are limited opportunities for the government to correct market failures or who believes the government is ineffective at correcting market failures. Traditional conservatives usually favor a relatively small role for government in regulating the economy. For example, conservatives usually think it is not appropriate for the government to take actions to reduce pollution, poverty, and market power.

traditional liberal – a person who believes there are many opportunities for the government to correct market failures and thus favors a relatively large role for government in regulating the economy. For example, liberals usually think it is appropriate for the government to take actions to reduce pollution, poverty, and market power.

transactions money – money that is needed to make purchases or pay bills in the near future.

transfer payment – a government payment not made in exchange for a good or service. Examples of transfer payments are Social Security benefits, government pensions, and welfare payments.

traveler’s check – a draft, available in various denominations, that must be signed at the time of purchase and which can be redeemed only when countersigned with a matching signature at the time of redemption.


U

underemployed worker – an adult with a paid job who is not working as much as he or she wants or needs to work.

underemployment – the condition of having a paid job, but not working as much as the adult wants or needs to work.

unemployed – adults who do not have a paid job, but are looking for one. This labor market category includes workers who are temporarily laid off and people who have found a job and are waiting for it to begin.

unemployment – the condition of wanting, but not having, a paid job.

unemployment insurance – a government program that temporarily provides unemployed workers with a fraction of their previous earnings.

unemployment, natural rate of – the normal rate of unemployment around which the unemployment rate fluctuates. The natural rate of unemployment is currently estimated to be 5.5%.

unemployment rate – the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.

unit of account – something, such as money, that is commonly used to measure the prices of things.

U.S. federal budget balance – the difference between U.S. government revenues and U.S. government expenditures.

U.S. government securities – long-term debt instruments (such as bonds) issued by the U.S. Treasury to finance the budget deficits of the federal government.


V

value added tax (VAT) – a type of consumption tax that is based on the additional value of a product added at each stage of the production process.

vault cash – the currency held in a commercial bank’s vault.

velocity of money – an estimate of the number of times each dollar is used as a medium of exchange in a period of time (usually a year). It attempts to measure how frequently money is used to buy a good or service.

vertical equity – the principle that taxpayers with a greater ability to pay taxes should pay larger amounts.


W

wage – the payment made to a worker in exchange for labor, typically based upon the amount of time worked or amount of output produced.

wage rate – the price of labor; the amount a worker is paid for an hour of his labor.

wage rate, equilibrium – the price of labor at which the quantity of labor supplied equals the quantity of labor demanded.

wage rate, market – the price of labor paid in a labor market. It may or may not be the same as the equilibrium wage rate.

wage, minimum – a price floor that specifies the lowest price that employers can legally pay for labor.

want – something that is desired, but not essential for human sustenance.

white-collar worker – an adult who performs work that does not involve manual labor, is paid an annual salary instead of hourly wages, and is expected to dress with some formality. Examples of white-collar workers are attorneys, bankers, and business executives.


X

X-axis – the horizontal axis of a graph. In supply and demand analysis, it is traditional to measure quantity on the X-axis.


Y

Yap – an island state in the Western Caroline Islands of the Federated States of Micronesia in the North Pacific Ocean. Yap is best known for its use of giant stones as money.



Y-axis – the vertical axis of a graph. In supply and demand analysis, it is traditional to measure price on the Y-axis.


Z

zero-sum game – a game in which the gains and losses of all the players sum to zero. Mercantilism is a philosophy that viewed trade as a zero-sum game.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Tax Cuts Don't Boost Revenues

In the December 6, 2007 TIME magazine article "Tax Cuts Don't Boost Revenues," Justin Fox explains that it is politicians, not economists, who claim that reductions in marginal income tax rates cause increases in revenues. "Virtually every economics Ph.D. who has worked in the Bush Administration acknowledges that the tax cuts of the past six years haven't paid for themselves."
If there's one thing that Republican politicians agree on, it's that slashing taxes brings the government more money. "You cut taxes, and the tax revenues increase," President Bush said in a speech last year. Keeping taxes low, Vice President Dick Cheney explained in a recent interview, "does produce more revenue for the Federal Government." Presidential candidate John McCain declared in March that "tax cuts ... as we all know, increase revenues." His rival Rudy Giuliani couldn't agree more. "I know that reducing taxes produces more revenues," he intones in a new TV ad.

If there's one thing that economists agree on, it's that these claims are false. We're not talking just ivory-tower lefties. Virtually every economics Ph.D. who has worked in a prominent role in the Bush Administration acknowledges that the tax cuts enacted during the past six years have not paid for themselves--and were never intended to. Harvard professor Greg Mankiw, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers from 2003 to 2005, even devotes a section of his best-selling economics textbook to debunking the claim that tax cuts increase revenues.

The yawning chasm between Republican rhetoric on taxes and even informed conservative opinion is maddening to those of wonkish bent. Pointing it out has become an opinion-column staple. But none of these screeds seem to have altered the political debate. So rather than write yet another, I decided to find out what Arthur Laffer thought.

Laffer is a bona fide economist with a doctorate from Stanford. He's also largely responsible for the Republican belief that tax cuts pay for themselves. Now 67, Laffer runs economic-consulting and money-management firms in Nashville. About the best I could get out of him on the question of whether the Bush tax cuts have paid for themselves was "I don't know." But that's only part of the story.

It's a saga that began in a bar near the White House on a December afternoon in 1974. Huddled at a meeting arranged by Wall Street Journal editorial writer Jude Wanniski were Cheney, then the deputy chief of staff to Republican President Gerald Ford, and Laffer, who was teaching at the University of Chicago's business school after a stint in the Nixon White House. In trying to explain to Cheney why a tax hike mooted by the President might not be such a great idea, Laffer drew a chart on a napkin that showed government revenues increasing as the tax rate moved up from 0% but then turning around and heading back toward zero as it neared 100%.

The idea that high tax rates brought diminishing returns was not controversial or even new--Laffer traces it to 14th century Muslim philosopher Ibn Khaldun. But few economists in the 1970s even considered that real-world tax rates could be on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve. Laffer thought they might be, and Wanniski argued on the Journal's editorial page and elsewhere that they almost certainly were. The claim became a key plank of Ronald Reagan's successful 1980 campaign for President.

And how did things work out? Laffer is convinced that the reduction of the top tax rate from 70% to 28% during the Reagan years paid for itself--in part by encouraging the rich to stop finagling--and the evidence mostly backs him up. "You find these enormous responses in the upper brackets," Laffer says. "These guys fire their lawyers and accountants and actually pay their taxes. Yay! Isn't that what we want them to do?"

But Reagan's tax cuts for the nonrich were big money losers, and it took the fiscal discipline of Bill Clinton to mop up the resulting red ink. Laffer gushes with praise for Clinton, but he's also a fan of Clinton's successor. "What Clinton did was, he gave Bush the fiscal flexibility to do what was right," Laffer says. In the face of the recession and terrorist attacks of 2001, Bush "needed to stimulate the economy and spend for defense, and Clinton gave him the ability to do that."

In other words, the Bush tax cuts were meant to create big deficits. But Laffer's O.K. with that. "The Laffer Curve should not be the reason you raise or lower taxes," he says. Perhaps not, but it does make for great campaign promises.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

A Critique of Libertarian Paternalism

In the September 26, 2007 Future of Freedom Foundation article "Libertarian Paternalism," Jacob G. Hornberger provides a critique of libertarian paternalism:

On April 1, 2007, the New York Times published a review of Brian Doherty’s new book, Radicals for Capitalism, an extensive history of the libertarian movement that focuses on such libertarian luminaries as Leonard Read, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Ayn Rand, and Milton Friedman.

The book review, “Free for All,” by David Leonhardt, leveled several criticisms at both the book and the libertarian movement, but the one criticism that really caught my attention appeared at the end of the review:

"In fact, across a range of major issues — energy policy, health care, retirement savings — a hybrid form of laissez-faire capitalism and collectivism seems to be ascendant. The market will be allowed to work its efficient magic, but government will step in to correct the market’s failures. “Libertarian paternalism” is the name two University of Chicago professors, Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler, have devised for one version of this philosophy."

What more insulting and devastating critique of the libertarian movement than that? And yet, the problem is that it’s true. For the past several years, some libertarians have promoted both minor and major reforms of socialist programs in the name of libertarianism. Why would it surprise us that people would naturally conclude that libertarianism is a hybrid of freedom and collectivism and that libertarians stand for “libertarian paternalism” or even “libertarian socialism”?

Consider, for example, school vouchers, which some libertarians have advanced as a libertarian proposal, employing such libertarian rhetoric as “choice” or “free-market education.”

Yet, what really is a system of school vouchers? It is nothing more than a reform of the socialist government-school system. Yes, it might improve the state’s educational system and, yes, it might provide parents with more options within that educational system. Nonetheless, it is not libertarian in the least. It is simply a reform of a socialist program.

Socialism involves the state’s forcible taking of one person’s money and giving it to another person. Isn’t that what school vouchers do? They involve the state’s taking one person’s money — a person who might not even have children — and giving it to another person in order to help him educate his children.

In principle, school vouchers are no different from, say, food stamps, a socialist welfare program that libertarians (and conservatives) have long condemned. Food stamps involve a process by which the state taxes some people in order to provide food assistance to other people. School vouchers involve a process by which the state taxes some people in order to provide educational assistance to other people.

As libertarians, all of us would agree that people should be free to advance any program they wish. But the problem is that when such reform programs are promoted as libertarian proposals, people get the impression that this is what libertarianism is all about — using the state to take one person’s money in order to give more “choice” or more “freedom” to another person. Couldn’t it be said that food stamps also give people more “choice” and more “freedom”?

Therefore, wouldn’t it be better, from the standpoint of libertarianism, if libertarians who advocated such welfare-state reform plans described them for what they actually are — conservative reforms of socialist programs? After all, it’s not a coincidence that the Heritage Foundation, the premier conservative organization in the country, has long supported school vouchers, given that conservatives long ago abandoned any commitment to genuine free-market principles. But what is the average person to conclude when libertarians also support school vouchers and describe them as a libertarian solution to the government-school crisis?

Libertarians often lament that liberals “stole” the term “liberal,” which once meant “libertarian,” and corrupted it to mean a support of the welfare state, the exact opposite of what libertarians stand for. But haven’t libertarians been doing the same thing for many years with the term “libertarian” by promoting conservative reform plans of liberal socialist programs in the name of libertarianism? Isn’t that why there are now people saying that “libertarian paternalism” is on the ascendancy?

What is the average person to conclude when he hears the “libertarian case” for vouchers? Isn’t he likely to conclude that libertarians believe that the state has a legitimate role in education? Would it be unreasonable for him to say, “Yes, I agree with the libertarians that we need a mixture of educational vehicles from which people can choose — public schools, private schools, charter schools, and home schooling. Choice is a good thing!”?

Yet all that is the antithesis of libertarianism, whose genuine principles dictate a complete separation of school and state, just as libertarianism calls, for example, for a complete separation of church and state. After all, can you imagine libertarians calling for a mixed system of state churches, private churches, charter churches, and church vouchers and suggesting to people that that is what libertarianism is all about? Wouldn’t it be better if those who advanced such systems of “choice” emphasized to people that they are conservative approaches to education and religion, not libertarian ones?

Social Security reform

Consider another area that has led people to conclude that libertarians are paternalists — Social Security, a government program that has its roots in German socialism. It’s not a coincidence that the Social Security Administration has a picture of Otto von Bismarck, the “iron chancellor” of Germany, on its website. It was Bismarck who introduced social security to Germany after having gotten the idea from German socialists.

Libertarianism stands for the principle that people should be free to keep their own money, handle their own retirement, and take care of their own parents and others through voluntary charity. That’s what genuine freedom is all about — the freedom to be responsible or irresponsible, the freedom to honor one’s parents or not, the freedom to help those in need or not. If people are forced to be responsible or caring, then they cannot truly be considered free.

Under Social Security, the state forcibly takes a portion of people’s earnings and distributes them to the elderly. Despite the illusion that the government has created with IOUs issued to the Social Security Administration by the Treasury Department, and contrary to what people have convinced themselves over the years, there is no Social Security fund and there never has been. The idea of a Social Security fund has long been a deception by the state and a self-deception by the citizenry. It consists of nothing more than IOUs issued by the Treasury Department in exchange for the cash that the Social Security Administration has collected, IOUs that cannot be paid until the government first raises the money (by additional taxes) to redeem them.

Thus, in actuality Social Security is a straight socialist transfer scheme — one in which the state takes a young Peter’s money to distribute it to an elderly Paul. In other words, it is a classic socialist or paternalistic program, one in which people look to government to play the role of a parent watching over and taking care of his adult children.

Yet for the past several years what some libertarians have done is to adopt conservative reform proposals and repackage them as libertarian solutions to the Social Security crisis. The Social Security reform plans come in a variety of packages, but they all revolve around the rhetoric of “choice,” just as school-voucher proposals do. Under these “choice” proposals, the state continues to run the Social Security program, but people have the “freedom” to direct the state to deposit and invest their money (which the state takes from them) into a particular fund selected by the taxpayer. It comes as no surprise that the fund to be selected must come from a list of state-approved funds.

Even conceding that a Social Security system in which people have “ownership” rights in their state-mandated retirement funds is an improvement over the current Social Security system, is it really legitimate to call such a system libertarian? Isn’t it nothing more than a conservative reform of a socialist program, albeit a reform that improves the program? Doesn’t it retain the state’s role in the areas of retirement and charity? Doesn’t it accept the underlying premise that the state has a legitimate place in directing and manipulating what people should do with what is supposed to be their own money?

Moreover, all the Social Security reform plans call for continuing to pay current Social Security recipients, which means continuing the socialist process of taking money from young Peters to pay elderly Pauls.

There is no way that any of the Social Security reform plans can legitimately be considered libertarian. Leaving the state in charge of retirement and continuing to use the coercive mechanism of the state to fund Social Security payments is the very antithesis of libertarian principles. Libertarianism is the absence, not the presence, of government involvement in people’s peaceful choices, especially with respect to what they do with their own money.

What’s wrong with promoting reform of Social Security? Nothing, so long as promoters emphasize that what they’re promoting is nothing more than a reform of a liberal social-welfare program. The problem arises when they describe such reform plans as libertarian, because then people are likely to reach the conclusion that libertarians believe in a hybrid form of free-market socialism, in which it is the job of the state to take care of people and in which it is the job of the free market to improve the state’s socialist programs.

Health-care reform

The principle is the same with other reform programs, such as those pertaining to Medicare and Medicaid. Rather than simply call for a repeal of these two socialist programs, some libertarians call for “choice,” which entails, for example, a medical IRA in which people can deposit a tax-deductible portion of their income into a special account to help with medical expenses.

Again, the problem arises in their failure to describe such IRAs as nothing more than a conservative plan to fix a liberal socialist program. By communicating to people that medical IRAs are a libertarian approach to health care, they suggest that libertarianism stands for the principle that the state plays a legitimate role in health care, when, in fact, that is the antithesis of libertarianism.

I recently met a man who described himself as a “moderate libertarian.” From the context of our subsequent conversation, it was clear to me that by that term he meant that he believes in such things as Social Security, Medicare, public schooling, and economic regulation, albeit all in a reformed or improved way. In actuality, he was a conservative, not a libertarian. My hunch is that the reason he believed he was a “moderate libertarian” is that he’s come to believe that libertarianism means a hybrid of socialist programs and “free-market” reforms.

“Contracting out” reforms

Another problem area involves the contracting out of government services, which is often billed as libertarian. Consider, for example, the Interstate Highway System, a public-works, government-owned boondoggle that was modeled after the National Socialist autobahn system in Germany.

The libertarian position, which is based on the principles of private property and free markets, is simply to sell the Interstate Highway System to private owners and leave the pricing mechanism to the free market, i.e., to the interactions between owners and consumers. But because some libertarians consider that too “radical” a solution to suggest to people, they instead come up with reform plans that they promote as libertarian.

For example, one proposal might be to close down a state’s paving department and contract out the paving to private companies. Obviously, such a proposal would constitute only a reform of how the state operates its publicly held highways. Yet some libertarians would advance such a reform as libertarian because it involves contracting out the paving of a socialist project to private companies.

Another example involving roads might be proposing special toll lanes or varying toll rates according to the time of day in order to alleviate traffic congestion. Libertarians often advance such proposals as libertarian, when in fact they are nothing more than conservative ways to reform the socialist road and highway system.

Libertarianism or reform?

Ultimately, every socialist reform plan is doomed to fail because, as Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek argued so well, socialism is inherently defective. However, if people believe that such reforms constitute libertarianism, then in their minds what will have failed is not socialism but rather libertarianism.

Unfortunately, most Americans remain wedded to the principles of the socialistic welfare state and consider it too “extreme” to repeal, not reform, socialist programs. Thus, they’re likely to be much more comfortable with a libertarianism that isn’t too “extreme,” that is a libertarianism that doesn’t abolish their socialist programs. So they’re much more likely to sign on to and support libertarianism if it involves keeping their socialist programs intact and even using the free market to reform and improve them.

But what does that methodology accomplish? Doesn’t it simply continue the status quo, albeit in a reformed way? And doesn’t it end up confusing people about the true meaning of libertarianism and the genuinely free society?

Obviously the arguments for libertarianism are significantly different from those in favor of reform. For example, suppose a libertarian who is advancing libertarianism and a libertarian who calls for reform of socialist programs are giving speeches in front of the same audience. The libertarian must convince people to challenge the role of the state in such areas as education, health care, and highways, not a simple task, especially since nearly everyone has grown up with state involvement in these fields. On the other hand, all the reformer has to do is tell people, “You don’t have to give up any of your programs. I’m here to tell you how to improve them with free-market principles.”

Thus, advancing libertarianism is much more difficult than advancing conservative reform. Telling people what they need to hear is a much more difficult task than telling people what they want to hear. Moreover, everyone knows that it is a much more difficult task to persuade people to abandon the paradigm to which they are accustomed in favor of a new paradigm, even if they become convinced that the old paradigm is inherently defective and that the new paradigm will improve their lives. Change, especially radical change, is difficult for most people.

If we are ever to restore economic liberty to America, we must advance libertarianism, not reform of socialist programs. While reformers sometimes suggest that their reforms will inevitably lead to the eradication of the programs they’re reforming, that’s not realistic. After all, why should people conclude that eradication is desirable, when the reformer himself has convinced them that their socialist programs are capable of being reformed and improved with “free-market” plans? If the reformer himself doesn’t believe in libertarianism enough to call for it openly and forthrightly, how likely is it that the person who accepts his call for reform will become a stronger advocate of eradication than the reformer? Moreover, once the reform is adopted, the reformer himself has a vested interest in the success of his reform, which obviously means keeping the program in existence.

A revival of economic freedom in America depends on the power of pure libertarian principles and ideals. Compromise and dilution of libertarian principles through proposals to reform socialist programs only impede our goal of achieving a free society. To restore economic liberty to our land, we must advance libertarianism, not libertarian paternalism or libertarian socialism.

Jacob Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation.

This article originally appeared in the June 2007 edition of Freedom Daily.

Friday, August 31, 2007

The Opportunity Cost of War in Iraq

The August 31, 2007 article "The Opportunity Cost of War in Iraq," provides data and links to estimate the U.S. opportunity cost of the war in Iraq.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Lead in toys provides another example of the dangers of unregulated markets

The lead in Chinese toys is an example of how unregulated markets provide many socially undesirable outcomes. Can you imagine what might be in products if there were no safety and labeling laws?

In the June 19, 2007 New York Times article "As More Toys Are Recalled, Trail Ends in China," Eric S. Lipton and David Barboza report there are cries for increased government oversight to prevent the recurrence of events such as this.
WASHINGTON, June 18 — China manufactured every one of the 24 kinds of toys recalled for safety reasons in the United States so far this year, including the enormously popular Thomas & Friends wooden train sets, a record that is causing alarm among consumer advocates, parents and regulators.

The latest recall, announced last week, involves 1.5 million Thomas & Friends trains and rail components — about 4 percent of all those sold in the United States over the last two years by RC2 Corporation of Oak Brook, Ill. The toys were coated at a factory in China with lead paint, which can damage brain cells, especially in children.

Just in the last month, a ghoulish fake eyeball toy made in China was recalled after it was found to be filled with kerosene. Sets of toy drums and a toy bear were also recalled because of lead paint, and an infant wrist rattle was recalled because of a choking hazard.

Over all, the number of products made in China that are being recalled in the United States by the federal Consumer Product Safety Commission has doubled in the last five years, driving the total number of recalls in the country to 467 last year, an annual record.

It also means that China today is responsible for about 60 percent of all product recalls, compared with 36 percent in 2000.

Much of the rise in China’s ranking on the recall list has to do with its corresponding surge as the world’s toy chest: toys made in China make up 70 to 80 percent of the toys sold in the country, according to the Toy Industry Association.

Combined with the recent scares in the United States of Chinese-made pet food, and globally of Chinese-made pharmaceuticals and toothpaste, the string of toy recalls is inspiring new demands for stepped-up enforcement of safety by United States regulators and importers, as well as by the government and industry in China.

“These are items that children are supposed to be playing with,” said Prescott Carlson, co-founder of a Web site called the Imperfect Parent, which includes a section that tracks recalls of toys and other baby products. “It should be at a point where companies in the United States that are importing these items are held liable.”

The toy trains and railroad pieces are made directly for RC2 at plants it oversees in China, presumably giving it some control over the quality and safety of the toys made there. Staci Rubinstein, a spokeswoman for RC2, declined on Monday to comment on safety control measures at company plants in China.

The Toy Industry Association, which represents most American toy companies and importers, also declined to comment.

Julie Vallese, a spokeswoman for the Consumer Product Safety Commission, said the agency recognizes that more must be done to prevent the importation of hazardous toys and other products from China. “It is a big concern. And the agency is taking steps to try to address that as quickly as possible,” Ms. Vallese said. “Their businesses will suffer if they don’t meet safety standards.”

Scott J. Wolfson, a second Consumer Product Safety Commission spokesman, would not say how long ago RC2 discovered the problem or when it first reported it to federal authorities.

In the last two years, the staff of the consumer product commission has been cut by more than 10 percent, leaving fewer regulators to monitor the safety of the growing flood of imports.

Some consumer advocates say that such staff cuts under the Bush administration have made the commission a lax regulator. The commission, for example, acknowledged in a recent budget document that “because of resource limitations,” it was planning next year to curtail its efforts aimed at preventing children from drowning in swimming pools and bathtubs.

The toy industry in the United States is largely self-policed. The Consumer Product Safety Commission has safety standards, but it has only about 100 field investigators and compliance personnel nationwide to conduct inspections at ports, warehouses and stores of $22 billion worth of toys and tens of billions of dollars’ worth of other consumer products sold in the country each year. “They don’t have the staff that they need to try to get ahead of this problem,” said Janell Mayo Duncan, senior counsel at the Consumers Union, which publishes Consumer Reports. “They need more money and resources to do more checks.”

Most recalls are done voluntarily, as was the case with Thomas & Friends, after companies discover problems or receive complaints.

Among the toy recalls, the problem is most acute with low-price, no-brand-name toys that are often sold at dollar stores and other deep discounters, which are manufactured and sent to the United States often without the involvement of major American toy importers. Last year, China also was the source of 81 percent of the counterfeit goods seized by Customs officials at ports of entry in the United States — products that typically are not made according to the standards on the labels they are copying.

At one of the RC2 factories in Dongguan, China, on Sunday, a pair of workers who were paid about $150 a month to spray paint on mostly metal toy trains six days a week said they did not know whether the paint they used contained lead. The factory produces metal toys as well as the wooden toys listed in the Thomas recall.

“We’re just doing the painting,” says Li Hong, a 22-year-old factory worker who was sitting out in front of the factory dormitories.

Exactly who operates the factories making the Thomas & Friends trains in Dongguan is unclear. While the zone is run by a group of Chinese or Hong Kong suppliers, it also houses an office building that bears the RC2 corporate logo.

China’s own government auditing agency reported last month that 20 percent of the toys made and sold in China had safety hazards such as small parts that could be swallowed or sharp edges that could cut a child, according to a report in China Daily. Officials in China, of course, are fighting back, insisting that its food and other exports are safe and valuable, that new regulations are being put into place and that problem goods account for a tiny portion of all exports.

The Toy Industry Association urges its members to routinely test products it is importing to make sure they comply with federal safety standards, which prohibit, for example, surface paint that contains lead in toys or items that could cause a choking hazard.

Other major retailers or toy industry companies hit by recalls for products made in China this year include Easy-Bake Ovens, made by Hasbro, which could trap children’s fingers in the oven and burn them, and Target stores, which the consumer product commission said was importing and selling Anima Bamboo collection games, some of which were coated with lead paint.

The 22 models of the Thomas & Friends toys that are being recalled include some of the most popular items in the line’s collection, such as the red James engine and the fire brigade truck. The toy line, based on the children’s book and television series, has an almost fanatical following among some families, who own dozens of models, which can cost $6.50 to $70 each.

The string of lead paint cases has drawn the most attention from consumer watchdogs and parenting advice columnists.

“Do I have to look at every toy that has paint on it that comes from China as perhaps suspect?” said Mr. Carlson, of Imperfect Parent.

Ms. Duncan, of Consumers Union, urged parents to sign up for the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s automated notification system at the commission’s Web site (www.cpsc.gov), so they can stay on top of which toys are being recalled.

Ms. Vallese, the spokeswoman for the product safety commission, said the agency’s acting chairwoman, Nancy A. Nord, went to China in May for a meeting with her counterparts there, focusing in particular on toys, lighters, electronics and fireworks.

“Is there a concern that there are more products coming in from China and making sure they live up to the standards we expect?” Ms. Vallese said. “Yes, there is, and we understand our authority and obligation and we will make sure we enforce it.”

But parents shopping at for toys in New York over the weekend said the whole episode left them uneasy.

“I think it’s terrible,” said Chris Gunster, 41, while perusing the Thomas & Friends display area in Toys “R” Us at Times Square with his wife and 4-year-old son, James, a big fan of the toy trains. “Lead paint in this day and age?”

Eric S. Lipton reported from Washington and David Barboza from Dongguan, China.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Unspinning the FairTax

In the May 31, 2007 article Unspinning the FairTax the consumer advocacy group FactCheck.org analyzes the proposed FairTax:

We look at the numbers behind the numbers.

Summary

In our recent article on the second GOP debate, we called out Gov. Mike Huckabee as well as Reps. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter for their support of the FairTax. We wrote that the bipartisan Advisory Panel on Tax Reform had “calculated that a sales tax would have to be set at 34 percent of retail sales prices to bring in the same revenue as the taxes it would replace, meaning that an automobile with a retail price of $10,000 would cost $13,400 including the new sales tax.” A number of readers pointed out that H.R. 25, the specific bill mentioned by Gov. Huckabee, calls for a 23 percent retail sales tax and not the 34 percent used by the Advisory Panel on Tax Reform. That 23 percent number, however, is misleading and based on some extremely optimistic assumptions. We found that while there are several good economic arguments for the FairTax, unless you earn more than $200,000 per year, fairness is not one of them.

Update June 14: In a letter, Americans for Fair Taxation wrote to say that it disagrees “very strongly” with FactCheck’s analysis of the FairTax. For their objections and our response, see the end of the “Analysis” section.

Analysis

How to Make 30 Look Like 23

Americans for Fair Taxation offers the following plain-language interpretation of H.R. 25:
Americans for Fair Taxation: A 23-percent (of the tax-inclusive sales price) sales tax is imposed on all retail sales for personal consumption of new goods and services.

It is the parenthetical that is important, for it hides the real truth of the tax rate.

First consider the way in which sales tax is normally figured. A consumer good that carries a $100 price tag might be subject to a 5 percent sales tax. That means that the final bill for the item is $105. The 5 percent figure is the amount of tax that is charged on the original purchase price. But now suppose that instead of pricing the item at $100, the shop owner simply priced the item at $105, then sent $5 directly to the state. The $105 price would be a tax-inclusive sales price. But $5 is just 4.8 percent of $105. That 4.8 percent number, however, is relatively meaningless. You are still paying exactly the same 5 percent tax on the item.

The 23 percent number in H.R. 25 is the equivalent of the 4.8 percent in the previous example. To calculate the real rate of the sales tax, we have to determine the original purchase price of an item. We can begin with the same $100 item, keeping in mind that a price tag that reads $100 has sales tax already built in. If our tax rate is 23 percent of the tax-inclusive sales price, then of the $100 final price, $23 of those dollars will be for taxes, meaning that the original pre-tax price of the item is $77. To get $23 in taxes on a $77 item, one must impose a 30 percent tax. In other words, a 23 percent sales tax on the tax-inclusive sales price is equivalent to a 30 percent tax on the actual price of the item.

FairTax proponents object to the 30 percent number, claiming that critics use the larger number to frighten people. Americans for Fair Taxation claims that it uses the tax-inclusive number to make it easier to compare the FairTax to the income tax that it will replace (since most of us think of income tax rates on an inclusive basis). But we are not accustomed to thinking of sales taxes inclusively. The result is that many FairTax supporters (about 15 percent of those who wrote to us, for example) do not understand that the 23 percent figure is tax inclusive.

Our analysis of the FairTax used a figure of 34 percent as the basic exclusive tax rate. One e-mailer complained that our number was at least 10 percentage points “higher than [the FairTax] is” because we calculated it as an addition to retail prices. But our 34 percent number is not 10 percentage points higher than the legislation. A 34 percent exclusive number is equivalent to a 25 percent tax inclusive rate – only 2 percentage points higher than the FairTax bill. We think that, intentional or not, the use of the tax-inclusive 23 percent rate has misled a lot of FairTax proponents.

But 30 Is Not 34 Either

Americans for Fair Taxation, however, has complained that H.R. 25 calls for a 23 percent inclusive (or 30 percent exclusive) rate, not a 34 percent rate. Our number came from the President's Advisory Panel on Tax Reform (scroll to chapter 9 for the panel's discussion of the FairTax), which calculated that a 34 percent rate on the actual price of consumer goods would be necessary to make the program revenue-neutral. Americans for Fair Taxation has said that the Advisory Panel did not use the FairTax as detailed in the legislation but instead made up its own plan. This complaint is disingenuous. The Advisory Panel did in fact begin with the 30 percent figure that proponents of the FairTax submitted. But the panel rejected those figures, claiming that they were based, at least in part, on the unrealistic assumption that there would be full compliance with the FairTax. In other words, proponents assume that no one will cheat on taxes. However, the Treasury Department estimates that the evasion rate for the entire U.S. tax system under current law is approximately 15 percent. The Advisory Panel accordingly assumed a 15 percent evasion rate for the FairTax.

More significantly, however, the panel found that FairTax supporters were employing questionable accounting. In calculating federal revenue, proponents assumed that purchases made by the federal government would be taxed at the full 30 percent rate. But when calculating federal expenditures, FairTax proponents did not factor in the additional costs of the 30 percent sales tax. The Advisory Panel thus threw out the revenue from federal purchases, noting (correctly) that increased revenue from taxing federal purchases is exactly canceled by increased costs in the federal budget. Unfortunately, the Advisory Panel has thus far refused to release its methodology, making it difficult to reconcile its projections with those of Americans for Fair Taxation.

Using a formula that corrects for the faulty assumption about government spending, William Gale, director of the economic studies program at the Brookings Institute, calculates that a 39.3 percent exclusive rate would be necessary for revenue neutrality. (We used the lower Advisory Panel number). A more recent study by FairTax supporter and Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff – working from Gale’s formula and adopting the same basic assumptions – determines that a 31.2 percent exclusive (or 23.8 percent tax-inclusive) rate would be sufficient.

Even if Kotlikoff is correct that a 31.2 percent rate is revenue-neutral, there remains some reason to doubt that the rate actually would be that low. The FairTax proposal assumes a 100 percent tax base on consumption. By way of contrast, most states that have sales taxes have roughly a 50 percent tax base. With the FairTax’s 100 percent base, consumers would pay taxes on a great many things that may not intuitively seem like consumption. The list would include:
  • Purchases of new homes
  • Rent
  • Interest on credit cards, mortgages and car loans
  • Doctor bills
  • Utilities
  • Gasoline (30 percent in addition to current taxes, which would not be repealed)
  • Legal fees
At today’s prices, gasoline would cost almost $1 per gallon more. A $150,000 new home would run $195,000 – plus the 30 percent tax that the buyer would pay on the interest on the mortgage. In short, the FairTax taxes everything that one buys, with the one notable exception of education. Any exceptions to the tax base (for instance, eliminating rent or credit card interest from the tax base) would require an offsetting increase in the rate.

But the FairTax Will Lower Prices

Proponents of the FairTax point out that prices on consumer goods contain what are called “hidden taxes.” Under current law, corporations have to pay taxes on their earnings. Moreover, businesses have to pay social security taxes for each employee. The money to pay these taxes has to come from somewhere, and FairTax supporters argue that the cost is passed on to the consumer. In fact, the best-known proponent of the FairTax, talk-show host Neal Boortz, argues that 22 percent of the price of a consumer good is really a “hidden tax.” Get rid of corporate and social security taxes, Boortz argues, and consumer good prices would drop by 22 percent. Even with the 23 percent FairTax, prices stay the same, and with the elimination of income taxes, paychecks will get bigger. Everyone gets a raise and the federal government still gets its revenue. About 10 percent of the e-mail messages we received from FairTax proponents trumpeted this kind of magic act. It is easy to understand the confusion on the issue, as Boortz himself made similar assertions in the hardcover edition of his book. (He later issued a corrected version in paperback.)

A bit of critical analysis shows that this cannot be right. The FairTax is revenue-neutral. That means that for every tax dollar collected under the current system, the FairTax has to collect a dollar. If the FairTax exactly equaled embedded taxes, then it could not possibly be revenue-neutral, since embedded taxes do not take into account personal income or estate taxes. The FairTax rate would have to be high enough to replace embedded taxes plus income and estate taxes.

Chris Edwards, the Cato Institute's director of tax policy studies, points out that prices do not really matter; corporate, payroll, income and estate taxes currently generate approximately $2.4 trillion, and a revenue-neutral FairTax would still require that taxpayers pony up $2.4 trillion. Nor is it clear that the 22 percent embedded tax figure is particularly meaningful. David Burton, chief economist of the Americans for Fair Taxation, calls it "simplistic" to think that the entire cost of corporate taxes is borne by consumers. Cato's Edwards suggests that while consumers do pay at least part of the costs, producers also bear some of the burden. That is, employees pay part of the costs of hidden taxes (in the form of lower wages), and corporate shareholders pay another portion (in the form of lower returns on their investments).

The FairTax: Is It Regressive?

Sometimes sales taxes are called regressive, meaning that the poorest pay higher rates than the wealthy. Strictly speaking, sales taxes are flat, since everyone pays the same rate. But because the poor tend to spend a high percentage of their income on basic consumer goods such as food and clothing, sales taxes do require the poor to pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes.

The FairTax plan, however, helps to alleviate this difficulty by exempting sales taxes on all income up to the poverty level. Taxpayers would receive a "prebate," which Edwards calculates to be about $5,600 annually. The Treasury Department estimates that the prebate program would cost between $600 billion and $700 billion annually, making it the largest category of federal spending. Americans for Fair Taxation disputes the Treasury Department numbers, claiming that the actual cost would be closer to $485 billion per year. The Treasury Department has so far refused to release its methodology, making it difficult to determine whose estimate is correct.

Who Really Pays?

With the prebate program in effect, those earning less than $15,000 per year would see their share of the federal tax burden drop from -0.7 percent to -6.3 percent. Of course, if the poorest Americans are paying less under the FairTax plan, then someone else pays more. As it turns out, according to the Treasury Department, “someone else” is everybody earning between $15,000 and $200,000 per year. The chart below compares the share of the federal tax burden for different income groups under the current system and under the FairTax. Those in the highest and the lowest brackets will see their share decrease, while everyone else will see their share of taxes increase.



Americans for Fair Taxation rejects the Treasury Department analysis, objecting that Treasury considers only the income tax. By leaving out payroll taxes (which are actually regressive) Treasury’s chart makes the FairTax look worse by comparison. We found that including all the taxes that the FairTax would replace (income, payroll, corporate and estate taxes), those earning less than $24,156 per year would benefit. AFT’s Burton agreed that those earning more than $200,000 would see their share of the overall tax burden decrease, admitting that “probably those earning between $40[thousand] and $100,000” would see their percentage of the tax burden rise.



Why Be Progressive?

It is easy to look at charts like the one above and dismiss the FairTax as simply another way to help the rich get richer. But there is an economic argument for a less progressive tax system, though that argument is extremely technical. Kotlikoff has asserted that the FairTax will lower the marginal tax rate for all earners. (The marginal rate is the tax rate paid on the last dollar earned.) Because marginal rates are lower, each extra dollar of income will result in greater purchasing power. The decrease in marginal rates is progressive – that is, marginal rate reductions are greater for the working- and middle-classes than for the wealthy.

Moreover, even FairTax critics like Gale agree that consumption taxes increase the size of the economy. Many studies show that long-term incomes would rise under a consumption-based tax system. Optimistic accounts show a 10 percent rise in income over time, but even the more cautious studies show gains of 5 percent to 7 percent. Because the FairTax will grow the economy, workers will eventually see increases in their income. FairTax proponents claim that the growing economy, coupled with the reduction in marginal tax rates, will offset the increased tax burden. Burton argues that "the FairTax is a positive-sum game," one in which purchasing power will grow faster than the tax burden. The size of any such gains is disputed, however; Americans for Fair Taxation consistently chooses from among the most optimistic growth projections.

Upon Further Review

We stand behind our earlier analysis of the FairTax. The proposal to which Gov. Huckabee referred is not a 23 percent tax, but rather a 30 percent tax. And it is revenue-neutral only through an accounting trick. It will collect more money from those earning between $15,000 and $200,000 per year and less from those earning more than $200,000 per year. It is possible that the FairTax would make most people better off, but much of that gain would be a direct result of making the tax code less fair.

- by Joe Miller

Correction, May 31: In the Analysis portion of our original story we stated that "Taxpayers with very low incomes would receive a 'prebate'." In fact, all taxpayers would receive the prebate for sales taxes on purchases up to the poverty level.


Update June 14: Americans for Fair Taxation wrote us to say that the organization disagrees “very strongly” with FactCheck’s analysis and that we have “uncritically accepted many misleading arguments” made by FairTax critics. As a courtesy to AFT, and as a service to our readers, we are posting the letter in our “Supporting Documents” section. We stand by our article, and our comments on AFT’s letter are below.

Our mission at FactCheck.org is not to rule on issues of public policy but rather to reduce the level of deception and confusion in U.S. politics. We found that, whatever Americans for Fair Taxation’s intentions, there remains much confusion about the FairTax.

AFT disputes our conclusion that the 23 percent number is misleading. We stand behind it. Sales taxes, as AFT notes, “are almost always expressed in an ‘exclusive’ manner,” which in our view makes 30 percent the logical figure to use when describing the FairTax.

We don’t actually call the FairTax “regressive,” as AFT implies that we do. We reiterate, however, that those earning between $15,000 (or perhaps as much as about $24,000 – see our addition to the “Who Really Pays” portion of our article above) and $200,000 per year – virtually all middle-class Americans – would pay a higher share of the tax burden under this proposal. Those earning more would see their share drop, as even AFT economists admit.

We did not ignore Americans for Fair Taxation’s research. Much of that research is publicly available and is listed among our sources. We do, however, approach all evidence with a healthy skepticism – including research that is funded by the very group whose claims we are investigating. Where possible we rely upon neutral sources, such as the bipartisan President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, and on opinions from third-party scholars from think tanks like the Brookings Institution and the Cato Institute.


Sources

Bachman, Paul, et al. "Taxing Sales Under the FairTax: What Rate Works?." Tax Analysts 13 Nov. 2006: 663-682.

Boortz, Neal and John Linder. The FairTax Book. New York: Harper Collins, 2005.

Edwards, Chris. "Options for Tax Reform." Policy Analysis 536 (2005): 1-44.

FairTax. -1 2007. Americans for Fair Taxation. 22 May 2007.

The Fair Tax Act of 2007 -- H.R. 25 / S. 1025 Plain English Summary. -1 2007. Americans for Fair Taxation. 17 May 2007.


Gale, William. "Comments on 'Taxing Sales Under the Flat Tax'." American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC. 28 Feb. 2007.

Gale, William. "A Comparison of Income and Consumption Taxes." President's Advisory Panel on Tax Reform, Washington, DC. 16 Feb. 2005.

Gale, William G.. "The National Retail Sales Tax: What Would the Rate Have to Be?." Tax Analysts (2006): 889-911.

Kotlikoff, Laurence. "Taxing Sales Under the FairTax: What Rate Works?." American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC. 28 Feb. 2007.

Linder, John. “The Fair Tax Act of 2005.” H.R. 25. Introduced 4 Jan. 2005.

Office of Management and Budget. The Budget for Fiscal Year 2008, Historical Tables. Washington: GPO, 2007.

President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform. Final Report. Washington: GPO, 2005.

Slemrod, Joel. "'The Fairtax Book' and 'Flat Tax Revolution': 1040EZ -- Really, Really EZ." New York Times. 13 Nov. 2005.

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices. 21 May 2007. United States Department of Energy. 24 May 2007.

Sunday, May 6, 2007

Free Trade's Great, but Offshoring Rattles Me

In the May 6, 2007 Washington Post article "Free Trade's Great, but Offshoring Rattles Me," Alan S. Blinder writes:
I'm a free trader down to my toes. Always have been. Yet lately, I'm being treated as a heretic by many of my fellow economists. Why? Because I have stuck my neck out and predicted that the offshoring of service jobs from rich countries such as the United States to poor countries such as India may pose major problems for tens of millions of American workers over the coming decades. In fact, I think offshoring may be the biggest political issue in economics for a generation.

When I say this, many of my fellow free-traders react with a mixture of disbelief, pity and hostility. Blinder, have you lost your mind? (Answer: I think not.) Have you forgotten about the basic economic gains from international trade? (Answer: No.) Are you advocating some form of protectionism? (Answer: No !) Aren't you giving aid and comfort to the enemies of free trade? (Answer: No, I'm trying to save free trade from itself.)

The reason for my alleged apostasy is that the nature of international trade is changing before our eyes. We used to think, roughly, that an item was tradable only if it could be put in a box and shipped. That's no longer true. Nowadays, a growing list of services can be zapped across international borders electronically. It's electrons that move, not boxes. We're all familiar with call centers, but electronic service delivery has already extended to computer programming, a variety of engineering services, accounting, security analysis and a lot else. And much more is on the way.

Why do I say much more? Because two powerful, historical forces are driving these changes, and both are virtually certain to grow stronger over time.

The first is technology, especially information and communications technology, which has been improving at an astonishing pace in recent decades. As the technology advances, the quality of now-familiar modes of communication (such as telephones, videoconferencing and the Internet) will improve, and entirely new forms of communication may be invented. One clear implication of the upward march of technology is that a widening array of services will become deliverable electronically from afar. And it's not just low-skill services such as key punching, transcription and telemarketing. It's also high-skill services such as radiology, architecture and engineering -- maybe even college teaching.

The second driver is the entry of about 1.5 billion "new" workers into the world economy. These folks aren't new to the world, of course. But they live in places such as China, India and the former Soviet bloc -- countries that used to stand outside the world economy. For those who say, "Sure, but most of them are low-skilled workers," I have two answers. First, even a small percentage of 1.5 billion people is a lot of folks. And second, India and China will certainly educate hundreds of millions more in the coming decades. So there will be a lot of willing and able people available to do the jobs that technology will move offshore.

Looking at these two historic forces from the perspective of the world as a whole, one can only get a warm feeling. Improvements in technology will raise living standards, just as they have since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. And the availability of millions of new electronically deliverable service jobs in, say, India and China will help alleviate poverty on a mass scale. Offshoring will also reduce costs and boost productivity in the United States. So repeat after me: Globalization is good for the world. Which is where economists usually stop.

And where my alleged apostasy starts.

For these same forces don't look so benign from the viewpoint of an American computer programmer or accountant. They've done what they were told to do: They went to college and prepared for well-paid careers with bountiful employment opportunities. But now their bosses are eyeing legions of well-qualified, English-speaking programmers and accountants in India, for example, who will happily work for a fraction of what Americans earn. Such prospective competition puts a damper on wage increases. And if the jobs do move offshore, displaced American workers may lose not only their jobs but also their pensions and health insurance. These people can be forgiven if they have doubts about the virtues of globalization.

We economists assure folks that things will be all right in the end. Both Americans and Indians will be better off. I think that's right. The basic principles of free trade that Adam Smith and David Ricardo taught us two centuries ago remain valid today: Just like people, nations benefit by specializing in the tasks they do best and trading with other nations for the rest. There's nothing new here theoretically.

But I would argue that there's something new about the coming transition to service offshoring. Those two powerful forces mentioned earlier -- technological advancement and the rise of China and India -- suggest that this particular transition will be large, lengthy and painful.

It's going to be lengthy because the technology for moving information across the world will continue to improve for decades, if not forever. So, for those who earn their living performing tasks that are (or will become) deliverable electronically, this is no fleeting problem.

It's also going to be large. How large? In some recent research, I estimated that 30 million to 40 million U.S. jobs are potentially offshorable. These include scientists, mathematicians and editors on the high end and telephone operators, clerks and typists on the low end. Obviously, not all of these jobs are going to India, China or elsewhere. But many will.

It's going to be painful because our country offers such a poor social safety net to cushion the blow for displaced workers. Our unemployment insurance program is stingy by first-world standards. American workers who lose their jobs often lose their health insurance and pension rights as well. And even though many displaced workers will have to change occupations -- a difficult task for anyone -- only a fortunate few will be offered opportunities for retraining. All this needs to change.

What else is to be done? Trade protection won't work. You can't block electrons from crossing national borders. Because U.S. labor cannot compete on price, we must reemphasize the things that have kept us on top of the economic food chain for so long: technology, innovation, entrepreneurship, adaptability and the like. That means more science and engineering, more spending on R&D, keeping our capital markets big and vibrant, and not letting ourselves get locked into "sunset" industries.

In addition, we need to rethink our education system so that it turns out more people who are trained for the jobs that will remain in the United States and fewer for the jobs that will migrate overseas. We cannot, of course, foresee exactly which jobs will go and which will stay. But one good bet is that many electronic service jobs will move offshore, whereas personal service jobs will not. Here are a few examples. Tax accounting is easily offshorable; onsite auditing is not. Computer programming is offshorable; computer repair is not. Architects could be endangered, but builders aren't. Were it not for stiff regulations, radiology would be offshorable; but pediatrics and geriatrics aren't. Lawyers who write contracts can do so at a distance and deliver them electronically; litigators who argue cases in court cannot.

But even if we do everything I've suggested -- which we won't -- American workers will still face a troublesome transition as tens of millions of old jobs are replaced by new ones. There will also be great political strains on the open trading system as millions of white-collar workers who thought their jobs were immune to foreign competition suddenly find that the game has changed -- and not to their liking.

That is why I am going public with my concerns now. If we economists stubbornly insist on chanting "Free trade is good for you" to people who know that it is not, we will quickly become irrelevant to the public debate. Compared with that, a little apostasy should be welcome.

Alan S. Blinder is a professor of economics at Princeton University, vice chairman of Promontory Interfinancial Network and vice chairman of the G7 Group.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Curse of the Lottery Winners

According to the March 11, 2007 ABC News story "Curse of the Lottery Winners," winning the lottery might not turn out as expected:
The record setting $390 million lottery jackpot shared by two American winners this week has put stars and dollar signs in the eyes of millions of would-be millionaires. But a sudden cash windfall hasn't always resulted in a happy ending for past lottery winners.

Psychologist Steve Danish, a professor of psychology at Virginia Commonwealth University, has studied the impact instant wealth has on lottery winners.

"The dream you have about winning may be better than the actuality of winning," he said. "There have been families that have just -- just been torn apart by this process."

Kenneth and Connie Parker were winners of a $25 million jackpot. Their 16-year marriage disintegrated just months after they became rich beyond their wildest dreams.

Jeffrey Dampier, a $20 million winner, was kidnapped and murdered by his own sister-in-law.

In 2002, Jack Whittaker won the largest individual payout in U.S. lottery history.

"I can take the money," Whittaker said at the time. "I can take this much money and do a lot of good with this much money right now."

But it didn't work out like that. Whittaker's life was consumed by hardship, including the death of his beloved granddaughter Brandi, who was a victim of a drug overdose, and the breakup of his marriage.

"If I knew what was going to transpire, honestly, I would have torn the ticket up," said Jewell Whittaker, Jack Whittaker's ex-wife.

For Eddie Nabors, the 52-year-old truck driver from Georgia turned recent mega millionaire, Danish offers this advice.

"I think you can probably fish for a couple days … but I'm not sure you can fish for 10 or 20 or 30 years," Danish said. "Without that goal or plan about what you expect to happen for yourself … it could be your worst nightmare."