Correcting Sarah Palin

In the November 14, 2009 article "FACT CHECK: Palin's book goes rogue on some facts," Associated Press writer Calvin Woodward corrects some claims in Sarah Palin's book, Going Rogue.

WASHINGTON – Sarah Palin's new book reprises familiar claims from the 2008 presidential campaign that haven't become any truer over time.

Ignoring substantial parts of her record if not the facts, she depicts herself as a frugal traveler on the taxpayer's dime, a reformer without ties to powerful interests and a politician roguishly indifferent to high ambition.

Palin goes adrift, at times, on more contemporary issues, too. She criticizes President Barack Obama for pushing through a bailout package that actually was achieved by his Republican predecessor George W. Bush — a package she seemed to support at the time.

A look at some of her statements in "Going Rogue," obtained by The Associated Press in advance of its release Tuesday:
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PALIN: Says she made frugality a point when traveling on state business as Alaska governor, asking "only" for reasonably priced rooms and not "often" going for the "high-end, robe-and-slippers" hotels.

THE FACTS: Although travel records indicate she usually opted for less-pricey hotels while governor, Palin and daughter Bristol stayed five days and four nights at the $707.29-per-night Essex House luxury hotel (robes and slippers come standard) overlooking New York City's Central Park for a five-hour women's leadership conference in October 2007. With air fare, the cost to Alaska was well over $3,000. Event organizers said Palin asked if she could bring her daughter. The governor billed her state more than $20,000 for her children's travel, including to events where they had not been invited, and in some cases later amended expense reports to specify that they had been on official business.
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PALIN: Boasts that she ran her campaign for governor on small donations, mostly from first-time givers, and turned back large checks from big donors if her campaign perceived a conflict of interest.

THE FACTS: Of the roughly $1.3 million she raised for her primary and general election campaigns for governor, more than half came from people and political action committees giving at least $500, according to an AP analysis of her campaign finance reports. The maximum that individual donors could give was $1,000; $2,000 for a PAC.

Of the rest, about $76,000 came from Republican Party committees.

She accepted $1,000 each from a state senator and his wife and $30 from a state representative in the weeks after the two Republican lawmakers' offices were raided by the FBI as part of an investigation into a powerful Alaska oilfield services company. After AP reported those donations during the presidential campaign, she gave a comparative sum to charity.
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PALIN: Rails against taxpayer-financed bailouts, which she attributes to Obama. She recounts telling daughter Bristol that to succeed in business, "you'll have to be brave enough to fail."

THE FACTS: Palin is blurring the lines between Obama's stimulus plan — a $787 billion package of tax cuts, state aid, social programs and government contracts — and the federal bailout that Republican presidential candidate John McCain voted for and President George W. Bush signed.

Palin's views on bailouts appeared to evolve as McCain's vice presidential running mate. In September 2008, she said "taxpayers cannot be looked to as the bailout, as the solution, to the problems on Wall Street." A week later, she said "ultimately what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy."

During the vice presidential debate in October, Palin praised McCain for being "instrumental in bringing folks together" to pass the $700 billion bailout. After that, she said "it is a time of crisis and government did have to step in."
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PALIN: Says Ronald Reagan faced an even worse recession than the one that appears to be ending now, and "showed us how to get out of one. If you want real job growth, cut capital gains taxes and slay the death tax once and for all."

THE FACTS: The estate tax, which some call the death tax, was not repealed under Reagan and capital gains taxes are lower now than when Reagan was president.

Economists overwhelmingly say the current recession is far worse. The recession Reagan faced lasted for 16 months; this one is in its 23rd month. The recession of the early 1980s did not have a financial meltdown. Unemployment peaked at 10.8 percent, worse than the October 2009 high of 10.2 percent, but the jobless rate is still expected to climb.
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PALIN: She says her team overseeing the development of a natural gas pipeline set up an open, competitive bidding process that allowed any company to compete for the right to build a 1,715-mile pipeline to bring natural gas from Alaska to the Lower 48.

THE FACTS: Palin characterized the pipeline deal the same way before an AP investigation found her team crafted terms that favored only a few independent pipeline companies and ultimately benefited a company with ties to her administration, TransCanada Corp. Despite promises and legal guidance not to talk directly with potential bidders during the process, Palin had meetings or phone calls with nearly every major candidate, including TransCanada.
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PALIN: Criticizes an aide to her predecessor, Gov. Frank Murkowski, for a conflict of interest because the aide represented the state in negotiations over a gas pipeline and then left to work as a handsomely paid lobbyist for ExxonMobil. Palin asserts her administration ended all such arrangements, shoving a wedge in the revolving door between special interests and the state capital.

THE FACTS: Palin ignores her own "revolving door" issue in office; the leader of her own pipeline team was a former lobbyist for a subsidiary of TransCanada, the company that ended up winning the rights to build the pipeline.
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PALIN: Writes about a city councilman in Wasilla, Alaska, who owned a garbage truck company and tried to push through an ordinance requiring residents of new subdivisions to pay for trash removal instead of taking it to the dump for free — this to illustrate conflicts of interest she stood against as a public servant.
THE FACTS: As Wasilla mayor, Palin pressed for a special zoning exception so she could sell her family's $327,000 house, then did not keep a promise to remove a potential fire hazard on the property.

She asked the city council to loosen rules for snow machine races when she and her husband owned a snow machine store, and cast a tie-breaking vote to exempt taxes on aircraft when her father-in-law owned one. But she stepped away from the table in 1997 when the council considered a grant for the Iron Dog snow machine race in which her husband competes.
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PALIN: Says Obama has admitted that the climate change policy he seeks will cause people's electricity bills to "skyrocket."

THE FACTS: She correctly quotes a comment attributed to Obama in January 2008, when he told San Francisco Chronicle editors that under his cap-and-trade climate proposal, "electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket" as utilities are forced to retrofit coal burning power plants to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Obama has argued since then that climate legislation can blunt the cost to consumers. Democratic legislation now before Congress calls for a variety of measures aimed at mitigating consumer costs. Several studies predict average household costs probably would be $100 to $145 a year.
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PALIN: Welcomes last year's Supreme Court decision deciding punitive damages for victims of the nation's largest oil spill tragedy, the Exxon Valdez disaster, stating it had taken 20 years to achieve victory. As governor, she says, she'd had the state argue in favor of the victims, and she says the court's ruling went "in favor of the people." Finally, she writes, Alaskans could recover some of their losses.

THE FACTS: That response is at odds with her reaction at the time to the ruling, which resolved the long-running case by reducing punitive damages for victims to $500 million from $2.5 billion. Environmentalists and plaintiffs' lawyers decried the ruling as a slap at the victims and Palin herself said she was "extremely disappointed." She said the justices had gutted a jury decision favoring higher damage awards, the Anchorage Daily News reported. "It's tragic that so many Alaska fishermen and their families have had their lives put on hold waiting for this decision," she said, noting many had died "while waiting for justice."
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PALIN: Describing her resistance to federal stimulus money, Palin describes Alaska as a practical, libertarian haven of independent Americans who don't want "help" from government busybodies.

THE FACTS: Alaska is also one of the states most dependent on federal subsidies, receiving much more assistance from Washington than it pays in federal taxes. A study for the nonpartisan Tax Foundation found that in 2005, the state received $1.84 for every dollar it sent to Washington.
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PALIN: Says she tried to talk about national security and energy independence in her interview with Vogue magazine but the interviewer wanted her to pivot from hydropower to high fashion.

THE FACTS are somewhat in dispute. Vogue contributing editor Rebecca Johnson said Palin did not go on about hydropower. "She just kept talking about drilling for oil."
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PALIN: "Was it ambition? I didn't think so. Ambition drives; purpose beckons." Throughout the book, Palin cites altruistic reasons for running for office, and for leaving early as Alaska governor.

THE FACTS: Few politicians own up to wanting high office for the power and prestige of it, and in this respect, Palin fits the conventional mold. But "Going Rogue" has all the characteristics of a pre-campaign manifesto, the requisite autobiography of the future candidate.

Contrary to Popular Opinion, Democrats made Government Smaller, Republicans made it Bigger

Click on the table above to enlarge it.

Contrary to its claims and popular perception, the modern Republican Party has been the true practitioner of big government in recent decades. Democrats reduced the relative size of the U.S. federal government in the 1990s and Republicans expanded it in the 2000s. Under President Bill Clinton's leadership, Congress reduced the size of U.S. federal government expenditures from 22.1% of gross domestic product in 1992 to 18.4% of GDP in 2000. Under President George W. Bush, public expenditures increased to 20.5% of GDP in 2008.

Fed Official Sees High Unemployment For Years

The November 11, 2009 article "Fed Official Sees High Unemployment For Years reports:

Unemployment likely will remain high for the next several years because the economic recovery won't be strong enough to spur robust hiring, a Federal Reserve official warns. Separate reports say job openings are at rock-bottom levels, a trend that could keep the unemployment rate high even as layoffs slow.

The cautionary note struck Tuesday by the presidents of regional Fed banks were the first public remarks by Fed officials since the government reported last week that the nation's jobless rate bolted to 10.2 percent in October. It marked only the second time in the post-World War II period that the rate surpassed 10 percent.

In separate speeches, Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned that rising unemployment could crimp consumers, restraining the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity.

'A Slow Rebound'

"With such a slow rebound, unemployment could well stay high for several years to come," Yellen said. "In other words, our recovery is likely to feel like something well short of good times."

Lockhart said "very slow net job gains" may occur "sometime next year."Yellen envisions the shape of the recovery kind of like an "L" with a gradual upward tilt of the base.

Troubles in the commercial real estate market and the plight of small businesses also will weigh on the recovery, they said.

Meanwhile, government and private surveys released Tuesday said job openings remain scarce. Small businesses in particular are reluctant to add workers as they struggle to obtain credit. Many are pushing their current employees to produce more. Economists say small businesses account for about 60 percent of new jobs.

Job Openings Remain Low

The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey said employers advertised about 2.5 million job openings at the end of September, up slightly from the previous month. That's down from a peak of 4.8 million openings in June 2007.

Layoffs are slowing a bit. Employers cut a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, the government said last week, much lower than the average of about 700,000 a month in the first quarter of this year. But until companies are willing to hire, the unemployment rate is likely to keep rising from its current level of 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years.

Still, there are some pockets of hiring as demand for information technology and sales professionals grows, according to government reports and job search Web sites. And there are signs that companies are adding more human resources personnel, which could signal more hiring down the road.

"We've seen a real spike in the hiring of contract recruiters," said Phil Haynes, managing director of AllianceQ, an employers' association that includes companies such as Starbucks Corp., Bank of America Corp. and Intuit Inc. "The recruiters come before the jobs."

But overall, it's a tough time to be out of work. There are about 6.1 unemployed workers, on average, competing for each job opening, a Labor Department report shows. That's down slightly from 6.2 last month, the most since the department began tracking job openings nine years ago.

It's a sharp increase from only 1.7 workers per opening when the recession began in December 2007.

Small Businesses Reluctant To Hire

The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that small companies remain skeptical about the recovery. Its Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.3 points to 89.1 last month, the third straight increase but still below the 94.6 reading in December 2007.

Small businesses are reluctant to hire or invest in expansion, the monthly survey found. Sixteen percent of the survey respondents plan to cut jobs over the next three months, while only 9 percent plan to hire.

"Overall, the small business job machine is still in reverse," said William Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist.

The Difficulty Balance Between the Short-Term Need to Stimulate the Economy and the Long-Term Need to Reduce Deficits & Debt

In the November 11, 2009 National Public Radio (NPR) article "Orszag: Deficit Can Help But Slows Recovery," Peter Orszag, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, explains that budget deficits are appropriate fiscal policy for fighting recessions, but in the long run there is a need to reduce deficits and the public debt to avoid its burdensome impact on future economic growth.

White House budget director Peter Orszag has his hands full these days trying to wrangle down a deficit that has ballooned to an estimated $1.4 trillion. Part of that borrowing was necessitated by the recession, while part of it was designed to shorten the economic crisis.

Orszag says the federal deficit needs to be cut to about 3 percent of economic growth in the coming years to reduce the sea of debt. At the same time, the U.S. has to guard against sending the economy into a tailspin by pulling back too soon on stimulus programs.

Striking a balance is "extraordinarily challenging," Orszag tells NPR's Steve Inskeep.

But he says it's important to note that the economy has made significant progress in the past year.

"On the one hand, [you have] the GDP gap, the gap between how much the economy is producing and how much it could produce, and, on the other hand, these deficits," he says.

"If we only faced one or the other, the way forward would be clearer. But balancing between the two keeps me up at night."

Sometime around 2011 to 2013, "that's where we're going to start to need some transition from the extraordinary assistance that the federal government has been providing to try to jump-start the economy," he says. "We're working through [this], and we haven't made final decisions on the best path to walk down from where we are now to where we need to get."

He says the deficits needed to be wound down from their current 10 percent of the economy to "something around 3 percent" but that it should be "done in a way that avoids the risks of 1937 — where you pulled fiscal support away from the economy too quickly and threw the economy back into a recession."

The current era of high deficits is "exceptional times," notes Orszag, an economist who led the Congressional Budget Office before being tapped to head the Office of Management and Budget. In fact, he says, the national economic situation is more precarious than at any time in the past 50 years.

Orszag makes no apologies for not projecting a balanced budget anytime in the near-term: "You have to remember the situation that we inherited."

The Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit and the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts weren't paid for, he points out. That was compounded by the reduction in tax revenue from the economic downturn, the cost of the economic stimulus and the need for increased spending on unemployment benefits and food stamps.

"So, the point being, we inherited a big hole," Orszag says.

But he says the economy has been pulled back from the brink, and the past year has seen an amazing turnaround.

"I do think it's important to step back," he says. "If in November 2008, someone told you that credit spreads would be back to normal levels and the economy would be growing by 3.5 percent, you probably would have looked at them like they were a little bit crazy."

Orszag, who studied health care policy at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, says he thought the House and Senate health care legislation had "captured important opportunities."

"Given the need to actually enact legislation, we are doing about as much as could be done," he says.

But the budget chief is circumspect about the difficulty of getting budget priorities through Congress.

"The thing about the politics of the deficit is that the deficit is unpopular, but so are many specific steps to reduce it," Orszag says. "There are some that will decry the deficit but are unwilling to embrace anything that will actually bring it down."

Paranoia threatens to emasculate U.S. policy makers

In his November 9, 2009 editorial "Paranoia Strikes Deep," Paul Krugman says the paranoia that is evident in modern politics has existed for a while. The problem is that it is now mainstream and has the potential to inhibit the ability of U.S. policy makers to address social problems.

Last Thursday there was a rally outside the U.S. Capitol to protest pending health care legislation, featuring the kinds of things we’ve grown accustomed to, including large signs showing piles of bodies at Dachau with the caption “National Socialist Healthcare.” It was grotesque — and it was also ominous. For what we may be seeing is America starting to be Californiafied.

The key thing to understand about that rally is that it wasn’t a fringe event. It was sponsored by the House Republican leadership — in fact, it was officially billed as a G.O.P. press conference. Senior lawmakers were in attendance, and apparently had no problem with the tone of the proceedings.

True, Eric Cantor, the second-ranking House Republican, offered some mild criticism after the fact. But the operative word is “mild.” The signs were “inappropriate,” said his spokesman, and the use of Hitler comparisons by such people as Rush Limbaugh, said Mr. Cantor, “conjures up images that frankly are not, I think, very helpful.”

What all this shows is that the G.O.P. has been taken over by the people it used to exploit.

The state of mind visible at recent right-wing demonstrations is nothing new. Back in 1964 the historian Richard Hofstadter published an essay titled, “The Paranoid Style in American Politics,” which reads as if it were based on today’s headlines: Americans on the far right, he wrote, feel that “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it and to prevent the final destructive act of subversion.” Sound familiar?

But while the paranoid style isn’t new, its role within the G.O.P. is.

When Hofstadter wrote, the right wing felt dispossessed because it was rejected by both major parties. That changed with the rise of Ronald Reagan: Republican politicians began to win elections in part by catering to the passions of the angry right.

Until recently, however, that catering mostly took the form of empty symbolism. Once elections were won, the issues that fired up the base almost always took a back seat to the economic concerns of the elite. Thus in 2004 George W. Bush ran on antiterrorism and “values,” only to announce, as soon as the election was behind him, that his first priority was changing Social Security.

But something snapped last year. Conservatives had long believed that history was on their side, so the G.O.P. establishment could, in effect, urge hard-right activists to wait just a little longer: once the party consolidated its hold on power, they’d get what they wanted. After the Democratic sweep, however, extremists could no longer be fobbed off with promises of future glory.

Furthermore, the loss of both Congress and the White House left a power vacuum in a party accustomed to top-down management. At this point Newt Gingrich is what passes for a sober, reasonable elder statesman of the G.O.P. And he has no authority: Republican voters ignored his call to support a relatively moderate, electable candidate in New York’s special Congressional election.

Real power in the party rests, instead, with the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin (who at this point is more a media figure than a conventional politician). Because these people aren’t interested in actually governing, they feed the base’s frenzy instead of trying to curb or channel it. So all the old restraints are gone.

In the short run, this may help Democrats, as it did in that New York race. But maybe not: elections aren’t necessarily won by the candidate with the most rational argument. They’re often determined, instead, by events and economic conditions.

In fact, the party of Limbaugh and Beck could well make major gains in the midterm elections. The Obama administration’s job-creation efforts have fallen short, so that unemployment is likely to stay disastrously high through next year and beyond. The banker-friendly bailout of Wall Street has angered voters, and might even let Republicans claim the mantle of economic populism. Conservatives may not have better ideas, but voters might support them out of sheer frustration.

And if Tea Party Republicans do win big next year, what has already happened in California could happen at the national level. In California, the G.O.P. has essentially shrunk down to a rump party with no interest in actually governing — but that rump remains big enough to prevent anyone else from dealing with the state’s fiscal crisis. If this happens to America as a whole, as it all too easily could, the country could become effectively ungovernable in the midst of an ongoing economic disaster.

The point is that the takeover of the Republican Party by the irrational right is no laughing matter. Something unprecedented is happening here — and it’s very bad for America.

The Pyramid of Capitalism

Chinese drywall provides another example of the dangers of unregulated markets

The toxic Chinese drywall is an example of how unregulated markets provide many socially undesirable outcomes. Can you imagine what might be in products if there were no safety and labeling laws?

This is similar to the 2007 problem with lead in toys imported from China.

In the November 7, 2009 article "Expert: Problem of defective Chinese drywall is no surprise," Allison Ross says "During a summit on defective Chinese drywall, a toxicologist said that kind of problem was expected."

TAMPA -- It was just a matter of time before a problematic building material would make it into American homes.

That's what state toxicologist Dr. David Krause told attendees during a summit on defective Chinese drywall Friday in Tampa.

"That this took so long to occur is somewhat surprising,'' Krause said.

He said that Americans have for decades used building materials that were altered to be more durable and put them into homes that were built to be tighter and less breathable.

Combine that with an absence of indoor air-quality standards, and "this was bound to happen with some material at some point,'' Krause said.

But now the law of unintended consequences has hit home hard for thousands of families in Florida and throughout the United States, who are struggling to figure out what to do with defective Chinese drywall that gives off a sulfuric gas.

HUNDREDS COMPLAIN

Almost 1,900 homeowners in 30 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico have complained of having a problematic drywall that's tied to corrosion of metal in their homes and blamed for giving them headaches, nosebleeds and respiratory irritation.

Part of the problem, Krause told the gathering of nearly 400, is a "lack and absence of indoor air-quality standards.''

He later told reporters that "we sometimes just get away from 'meat and potatoes' public health and stewardship,'' saying that the last major effort he was involved in to examine product emissions was in the mid-1990s.

"It was a valiant effort, but there was no interest,'' he said.

However, stricter regulation of chemicals in products would be a major undertaking, he added.

"You're talking about interstate commerce, and in this case, now international commerce,'' he said.

His comments wrapped up a two-day Technical Symposium on Corrosive Imported Drywall that brought together experts in both the private and public sector to discuss the latest details of testing and research being done on the corrosive drywall problem.

CHINA VISIT

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., was the keynote speaker Friday. He said he is pushing President Barack Obama to address the defective drywall issue when he goes to China next week.

"At the end of the day, the financial wherewithal to make these homeowners whole is going to be the party responsible. I think that's the Chinese government,'' Nelson said. "We've just got to keep agitating on this.''

The Employment Situation news release

The latest Employment Situation news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.
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In October, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest since April 1983, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline (-190,000). The largest job losses over the month were in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.

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News releases archives:
http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/all_nr.htm

Structural Unemployment: Even as layoffs persist, some good jobs go begging

In the November 3, 2009 CNNMoney article "Despite millions of job seekers, many positions sit open," Jessica Dickler provides evidence of structural unemployment in the U.S. economy. (Structural unemployment occurs when the skills of unemployed workers do not match the skills required in available jobs.)

Despite millions of unemployed job seekers desperate for work, many open positions are languishing unfilled. The reason? Not enough candidates.

With job openings largely concentrated in specialized industries like health care, green technology and energy, some employers say the problem is finding qualified workers, which are in short supply. Meanwhile, they are inundated with eager candidates from other industries who lack the skills and experience that the job requires.

According to a recent survey by Human Capital Institute and TheLadders, more than half of employers said "quality of candidates" or "availability of candidates" are their greatest challenges -- despite the recession.

Mary Willoughby, the director of human resources at the Center for Disability Rights in Rochester, New York, has been trying to hire registered nurses, home health aides and service coordinators for several of the agencies that she oversees.

Many of the positions, which require specific skills and offer salaries in the range of $30,000 to $45,000, have been vacant for six months or longer.

The job postings, which appear on CareerBuilder, Craigslist and some regional sites, garner a lot of attention, she says. "We get tons of résumés from people. We are just not getting highly qualified candidates."

The problem, according to Willoughby, is that they are bombarded by résumés from job seekers without the two years or more of health care experience necessary. "We're seeing a lot of people trying to break into the health care arena," she said.

As a result, human resources spends too much time sifting through résumés for people who aren't remotely qualified, and can't find many that are. "We've gotten close to 300 résumés for a service coordinator position. Out of that we brought in four people," she said.

Those that didn't make the cut included someone with previous experience as an office clerk and a job applicant with a bachelor's in mathematics, currently employed at a café.

Willoughby recently instituted a hiring incentive program to encourage existing employees to refer viable candidates. Those responsible for bringing in new hires are eligible to receive $2,500 to $5,000, depending on the position. She has also added in a signing bonus for the new employees.

Things are even worse on the higher end of the pay scale. At wireless leasing firm, Unison Site, a position for director of lead generation, which pays $90,000-$140,000, has been open for three months, with no candidates in sight.

"With the job market the way it is, we should be able to recruit really good people and it hasn't worked quite as well as we wanted," said Joe Songer, co-founder and chief financial officer. "My problem is when I put an ad out I just get bombarded with people that aren't qualified."

Typically, the jobs that are the hardest to fill are those that require unique or extensive work experience, according to management professor Peter Cappelli of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

For job seekers, applying to those types of positions may be worth the off chance that one responds with a request for an interview. "They think, I've got nothing to lose," Cappelli said.

Recruiters recommend that job seekers create a targeted list of companies with a clear match to their background and tailor their experience to the job they are applying for, rather than blanketing all available job openings with the same résumé.

"Eighty percent of jobs are being obtained on personal referrals so candidates that are spending the bulk of their time sending their resume out blindly are not being the most fruitful," said Carolyn Thompson, president of CMCS, a boutique staffing firm near Washington, D.C.

Thompson advises job seekers to network within those target companies, whether in person or through social networking sites.

Without a contact at the company, résumés should highlight and emphasize any relevant experience specific to the job opening, added Jennifer Becker, market director for Ajilon Professional Staffing. "You really want your résumé to very quickly and easily reflect your relevant skills and the value you can bring to the position."

"If the client has to look for it, you are probably going to get passed over."

Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekers

In the November 5, 2009 article "Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekers," Associated Press business writers Martin Crutsinger and Stephen Manning suggest the recently reported increases in U.S. productivity could be detrimental to unemployed workers. This is the opposite conclusion from the one reported earlier in the day by Reuters writer Lucia Mutikani. Which conclusion should you believe? These productivity increases are not the result of increased capital investment (such as upgrading a computer network) or additional education that has improved the skills of U.S. workers. Thus, it is doubtful that they are sustainable. Employment increases are on the way.

WASHINGTON – Companies across the economy are finding ways to do more with fewer workers, dimming hopes that hiring will take off anytime soon.

Employers became leaner and more efficient in the third quarter. Wages, meantime, remain flat or falling. The result is that productivity — output per hour of work — jumped at the fastest pace in six years.

The good news for companies, though, may be bad news for the jobless. As long as companies can get their workers to produce more, they have little reason to hire — at least until consumer spending picks up. And the squeeze on incomes could depress consumer spending, putting the economic recovery at risk.

Still, some economists were encouraged by the productivity report. They say that eventually, employers won't be able to squeeze more from their staffs. They will then have to ramp up hiring — something that could happen next year, even though the jobless rate is expected to hit double digits.

Productivity rose at an annual rate of 9.5 percent in the July-September quarter, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was much better than the 6.4 percent gain economists had expected. Unit labor costs fell at a 5.2 percent rate.

While companies aren't doing much hiring, they're not cutting as many workers, either. The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in 10 months.

On Wall Street, the better-than-expected jobless claims report and an upbeat forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. buoyed investors. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 204 points to 10,005.96, and broader indexes also gained.

The 9.5 percent productivity rise followed a 6.9 percent surge in the second quarter and was the fastest since a 9.7 percent increase in the third quarter of 2003.

The gain reflected that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew for the first time in a year — at an annual rate of 3.5 percent. The higher output came as companies continued to lay off workers. That meant employers produced more with fewer workers.

The 5.2 percent drop in unit labor costs marked the third straight decline and was larger than the 4 percent decrease economists were expecting.

Productivity is the key ingredient to rising living standards. It lets companies pay their workers higher wages. Those increases tend to be financed by increased output, rather than higher costs for products.

But as they struggled with the recession, companies boosted productivity while continuing to lay off workers. Many produced more goods; others kept their output down but slashed costs. Companies kept wages down by freezing pay or imposing unpaid furloughs.

"Survival meant cutting costs as rapidly as possible and fulfilling orders with the fewest number of workers," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Some companies in hard-hit sectors have managed to boost productivity despite job cuts. They've had to find ways to stretch their remaining workers to keep up with demand.

Fein Tool North America, a Cincinnati company that supplies auto parts manufacturers, has cut about 100 workers, or 33 percent of its staff. But Fein president Ralph Hardt said the company can still fill its orders by using more overtime shifts and temporary workers.

"We are asking more of our people than ever before," he said.

Fein also has made technical changes, including increasing their presses' strokes per minute so they can stamp more metal.

Hardt said he plans to rehire once the economy picks up again. But he's hesitant to do so quickly.

"If I see signs of recovery, I am going to hire back, but I am going to be very prudent," he said.

Elsewhere, Union Pacific has found ways to reduce the number of crews it needs and is using more fuel-efficient locomotives. The rail company also rewarded train engineers who saved fuel on their routes with free gas cards for their personal vehicles, all while furloughing nearly 10 percent of its 45,000 workers.

Naroff said hiring could remain sluggish for months. But other analysts are more optimistic. They were encouraged by the productivity report, noting that companies are starting to reach the limits of how much they can produce with their shrunken work forces.

"We believe businesses will have to start to increase hours worked and payrolls around the turn of the year since they cannot expect their current work force to sustain such rapid productivity growth," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital.

The problem is that consumer demand could falter once the government removes the stimulus programs it has put in place, such as record-low interest rates and homebuyer tax credits. Companies could stop hiring if they think demand will slump again.

Temporary surges in labor productivity tend to follow the end of a downturn, said Cliff Waldman, an economist with trade group Manufacturers Alliance.

"You're having a turn in output from negative to positive with a significantly depleted labor force," he said. "It gives the illusion that productivity has increased. It's really just arithmetic more than reality."

In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for jobless benefits last week fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000. That's better than economists' estimates of 523,000.

Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of employers' willingness to hire new workers.

The four-week average of jobless claims, which smooths fluctuations, dropped to 523,750, its ninth straight decline. That's 135,000 below the peak for the recession, reached in early April.

Despite the improvement, initial claims remain well above the roughly 400,000 that economists say will signal job creation.

Another 4.1 million people claimed extended unemployment benefits in the week ended Oct. 17, the latest data available, an increase of about 100,000 from the previous week. Congress has added 53 weeks of emergency aid on top of the 26 weeks typically provided by states.

Still, as roughly 7,000 Americans run out of extended benefits every day, Congress has approved legislation that would add another 14 to 20 weeks. President Barack Obama is expected to sign the bill.

The National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group, estimates that up to 1.3 million people would exhaust their benefits without the extension.

Economists expect the nation lost a net total of 175,000 jobs last month, adding to the 7.2 million lost since the recession began in December 2007. And many expect the jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent before the recovery gains enough steam to start pushing it down next summer.

Productivity surge signals job growth to follow

In the November 5, 2009 article "Productivity surge signals job growth to follow," Lucia Mutikani reports that recent increases in U.S. productivity may signal that businesses are ready to hire additional workers.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. business productivity grew at its fastest clip in six years in the third quarter and new claims for jobless aid fell to a 10-month low last week, suggesting the labor market may be starting to bottom out.

The Labor Department said on Thursday that productivity surged at a 9.5 percent annual rate, the quickest pace since the third quarter of 2003, as companies squeezed more output from a smaller pool of labor to hold the line on costs.

The Labor Department also reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 512,000 in the week ended October 31, the lowest level since early January. Markets had expected a decline to only 523,000, from the 530,000 reported in the prior week.

Some healing of the labor market is crucial to sustaining and strengthening the economy's recovery after its worst recession in 70 years, with employment key to underpinning consumer spending.

Analysts doubt that the rapid growth rate in productivity, which measures the hourly output per worker, can be sustained, which some analysts say means businesses may soon have to step up hiring to meet the demand for their goods and services.

"We expect the pace of efficiency gains will soon begin to fade," said Michelle Girard, a senior economist at RBS in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Having cut payrolls so dramatically during the last downturn, we believe that companies will be forced to add workers earlier in this recovery than was the case following the last two recessions."

U.S. stocks rallied on the data, driving up the three main indexes more than 1 percent higher in morning trade.

Financial markets had expected productivity to rise at a 6.4 percent rate. It grew at a 6.9 percent pace in the April-June period, when the economy was still contracting.

MUTED INFLATION PRESSURES

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held overnight interest rates close to zero percent and said it would keep them extraordinarily low as long as excess economic slack and a lack of inflation warning signs prevailed.

The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, driven largely by government stimulus.

The strong productivity report suggested little need to worry about inflation at this juncture.

Unit labor costs, a measure of the cost of labor for any given amount of production, fell 5.2 percent last quarter after declining 6.1 percent the previous period. Analysts had forecast a drop of only 4 percent.

"Heightened productivity, the shrinkage of unit labor costs improves prospects for hiring over the near term. It points toward wider profit margins, faster earnings growth and more hiring activity," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York.

Productivity in manufacturing rose at a record 13.6 percent rate in the third quarter, likely driven by automakers ramping up production to rebuild depleted stocks after the popular "cash for clunkers" program boosted sales.

Compensation per hour jumped at a 3.8 percent pace, but after adjustment for inflation it was up only 0.2 percent -- pointing to sluggish growth in incomes.

In the weekly jobs claims report, the four-week moving average for new benefit claims slipped 3,000 to 523,750 last week, the lowest in almost 10 months. The average, which is seen as a better gauge of underlying trends, has declined for nine straight weeks.

Still, claims remain high. Analysts say they need to drop below 400,000 to signal that the economy is creating jobs.

U.S. employers have cut 7.2 million workers from their payrolls since the economy fell into recession in December 2007, but the pace of job cuts has been easing.

While the Labor Department is expected to report on Friday that the decline in employment slowed further in October, the jobless rate is expected to rise to 9.9 percent, up from a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

There were further hints of labor market improvement in the data on Thursday. The number of people still on the jobless benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid dropped to the lowest level since March in the week ended October 24, the latest week for which data was available.

"The falling number of people on state unemployment insurance programs implies that the unemployment rate is probably approaching its peak. We look for the unemployment rate to peak around 10.2 percent in early 2010," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JP Morgan in New York.

"Fair & Balanced" Fox News contradicts itself in coverage of election outcomes

In the November 4, 2009 FOXNews.com editorial "Four Things We Learned From the NY 23 Race," Andrea Tantaros argues that one should not infer much from the outcomes of the November 4 elections because "sometimes, candidates are just plain weak (see the Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia governor's races)." This is in sharp contrast to other Fox stories that suggest the Democratic losses are evidence of the failure of President Obama's policies (even though Virginia has long been a Republican stronghold). And the Republican congressional loss in New York is quickly dismissed as indicative of nothing, even though the seat had been held by the GOP for more than 100 years.

According to the Tantaros commentary:

The ups and downs and unknowns in the special election for the 23rd congressional district of New York prove one thing conclusively -- we all love political drama. Here's what we've also found out this week.

After weeks of ups and downs and unknowns in the special election for the 23rd congressional district of New York with conservative candidate Doug Hoffman losing to Democrat Bill Owens (one that which played out much like a political telanovela) analysts can agree on one absolute: we love drama.

This race was reality television at its best with all the necessary ingredients: an underdog (Hoffman), a train wreck (Scozzafava), celebrity influence (Palin) and an attentive national media. And like many reality shows, after you've watched it you feel like you learned almost nothing.

So what did we learn about NY 23 besides its dizzying storyline?

1. We learned that the Republican Party establishment in Washington is not losing its influence; it simply backed a bad candidate in Scozzafava -- someone it never initially selected, nominated or wholeheartedly endorsed. Sometimes, candidates are just plain weak (see the Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia governor's races) and in places like New York where third party candidates are common, a door is opened for someone outside the norm.

2. We learned that Sarah Palin doesn't just "go rogue" herself; she helps others do the same. Palin's an earned media machine. She was able to help bring the battle to the national stage (Heck, the woman could get the national press corps to focus on a potato sack race competition). Even those who think the former Alaska governor is political poison, at the very least, have to admit her endorsement didn't hurt Hoffman and didn't help Scozzafava. The real question: is this a trend...for her? If Sarah Palin has any hopes of winning a national office she can't run around endorsing unwinnable candidates. She'll lose her political mojo and be labeled a spoiler.

3. From the NY 23 race we also learned that this is not the beginning of a GOP civil war. For decades moderates and conservatives have faced each other in primaries, but when faux Republicans like Scozzafava who espouse liberal beliefs run for higher office they run the risk of getting challenged, clipped or even defeated by someone from the right, or often helping the guy on the left.

4. We learned that despite all the craziness, the voters -- not the pundits, polls or the politicians -- make the final call. But in the case of NY 23, maybe the most telling takeaway is the only absolute: we love a good story.

Andrea Tantaros is a conservative columnist and FOXNews.com contributor. Follow her at www.andreatantaros.com and @andreatantaros on Twitter.

The Jobs of the Future

In the November 3, 2009 Salon article "Why Dilbert is doomed," Michael Lind explains that "the jobs of tomorrow are not what you'd expect."

Where are tomorrow's jobs going to come from? The question is more urgent than ever, with official unemployment hovering around 10 percent and with nearly one in five Americans unemployed, if you count part-time workers who want full-time jobs and people so desperate that they have given up looking for work entirely.

Most popular discussion about jobs focuses on the effects of offshoring of manufacturing jobs to China and other countries, many of which, like China, manipulate exchange rates and use subsidies to promote their industries. Combating predatory trade practices and rebalancing global trade by means of higher U.S. exports is important, in the short and medium term. But in the long run technologically driven productivity growth is the most important factor in shaping employment in the U.S. and every country in the world.

Productivity growth substitutes machinery or more efficient techniques for physical labor (engines) and mental labor (computers). Even if the U.S. had a completely closed economy, over time inventors and investors would figure out ways to replace people with machines.

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution more than two centuries ago, sectors that have adopted labor-saving machinery have shed labor to other sectors. The mechanization of agriculture and mining -- "primary production" -- freed up labor for factories. Increasing productivity in the "secondary production" like manufacturing, by allowing one person with advanced technology to do the work of dozens, freed up workers who were then employed in "tertiary production" -- office work and business services that support primary and secondary production. Thus the evolutionary progression, from yeoman farmer to factory worker ... to Dilbert in his cubicle.

With the ruthlessness of Skynet in "The Terminator," computerization in the tertiary sector is now committing mass Dilberticide, replacing receptionists with automated phone systems and travel agents with services like Priceline. The emptying of the cubicles won't result in permanent mass unemployment, the present prolonged crisis notwithstanding. As it has always done in the past, labor will shift from more mechanized to less mechanized sectors. But what will those jobs be?

We already know the answer.

The most numerous and stable jobs of tomorrow will be those that cannot be offshored, because they must be performed on U.S. soil, and also cannot be automated, either because they require a high degree of creativity or because they rely on the human touch in face-to-face interactions. The latter are sometimes called "proximity services" and they include the fastest-growing occupations, healthcare and education.

Most job growth in the last decade has been concentrated in three sectors: healthcare, education and government, mostly state and local government. Since the recession began, healthcare has added 559,000 jobs. Even more remarkable, the average monthly gain of 22,000 jobs during 2009 has been only slightly lower than the average increase of 30,000 jobs a month in 2008.

Last July, in a study titled "Preparing the Workers of Today for the Jobs of Tomorrow," the Council of Economic Advisers predicted that between 2008 and 2016 employment will decline in manufacturing, retail and wholesale, business and financial services and other sectors. Public-sector employment will remain steady, and there will be growth in transportation and utilities and construction. The greatest job growth, according to the White House, will be in the health and education sectors. Healthcare-related jobs make up seven out of the 20 fastest-growing occupations, and 14 out of the 20 fastest-growing jobs. The fastest-growing occupations are home health aides and registered nurses.

The aging of the boomers accounts for only 10 percent of the growth. The rest comes from increasing demand. That's because productivity growth in agriculture, construction and manufacturing has greatly reduced the cost of food, shelter and appliances. In the U.S. and similar nations, the freed-up income tends to be used on quality-of-life goods, of which healthcare is the most important. So-called ambulatory healthcare services, defined as healthcare provision for people who do not need to be hospitalized, form the fastest-growing part of the healthcare field. This underlines the point: As other expenditures are reduced, Americans are spending more income on non-emergency healthcare, a superior good that makes it possible to enjoy the other goods of life all the more.

It's true that the U.S. needs to reduce unnecessary health cost inflation. Paradoxically, however, a more efficient healthcare sector is likely to hire more, not fewer, people, if tasks that are now carried out by highly paid doctors are allowed to be performed by nurses and home health aides. Two Stanford economists, Robert E. Hall and Charles I. Jones, have predicted that even if healthcare is delivered in the most efficient possible way, Americans are likely to seek to devote "30 percent or more of GDP on health by the middle of the century."

The healthcare sector as a whole should not be considered a drag on the real or productive economy. On the contrary, while employment in manufacturing is declining overall, employment in pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing in the U.S. is expected to expand. In the words of the economist Robert Fogel, "Just as electricity and manufacturing were the industries that stimulated the growth of the rest of the economy at the beginning of the 20th century, healthcare is the growth industry of the 21st century. It is a leading sector, which means that expenditures on healthcare will pull forward a wide array of other industries, including manufacturing, education, financial services, communications and construction."

Another widespread myth holds that most Americans need to go to college in the future. In reality, most of the fastest-growing jobs, including those in healthcare, do not require a four-year bachelor's degree. According to the Council of Economic Advisers: "The categories with some education required beyond high school are growing faster than those not requiring post-secondary schooling. The growth is not solely among occupations requiring bachelor's degrees; occupations that require only an associate's degree or a post-secondary vocational award are actually projected to grow slightly faster than occupations requiring a bachelor's degree or more." The appropriate public policy response is not necessarily to send more Americans to expensive four-year colleges, particularly if that means crippling burdens of personal debt in the form of student loans. We need to expand the vocational training provided by the community college system.

None of this means that we don't need world-class scientists and engineers, or that we don't need to rebuild our manufacturing export industries, or that we don't need to hire people to design and build up-to-date infrastructure and energy systems. High-tech agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure and related business and professional services will remain essential to economic dynamism. But thanks to ever smarter machines, fewer and fewer people will work in the primary (field), secondary (factory) and tertiary (office) sectors. Most of the job growth will be in the "quaternary" sector of healthcare and other qualify-of-life services.

Dilbert's days are numbered. Look for Dilbert Jr. at the nursing station.

Thank heavens for the downturn? Some people think so

In the October 30, 2009 article "Thank heavens for the downturn? Some people think so," Miral Fahmy reports that the recession has helped some people realize what is most important in life:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – It seems the financial crisis isn't all doom and gloom: one in four people are glad the world's economy slumped like it did, because it helped them realize their priorities in life, according to a global survey.

Market research firm Synovate polled around 11,400 people across the world and found more than half had permanently changed their attitudes toward money over the last 12 months.

Another 47 percent, however, said they were looking forward to being able to spend freely again.

"The psychology of global recession has changed the way many people do things," Jenny Chang, Synovate's managing director in Taiwan, said in a statement.

"They are making life-altering decisions based on the current global recession, be it postponing marriage, having children, moving house, changing jobs or pursuing higher education. Even in a relatively impact-free economy like Taiwan's."

A quarter of all respondents led by Malaysians said they were glad the world had an economic crisis as it has helped them realize what's really important in their lives.

Nearly 60 percent said they would try their best to keep a tight rein on their spending so that it doesn't go back to what it used to be before the downturn, and over two-thirds are more interested in boosting their savings than reducing their debt.

"The credit crunch has been felt, and it has reinforced the family values of Malaysians, helping them to appreciate what they have rather than continually strive for more," said Steve Murphy managing director of Synovate in Malaysia, Steve Murphy.

The majority of respondents -- over 80 percent -- believed their generation had a responsibility to leave their country better off for the younger generation, even if it involves dramatically altering their lifestyles.

The survey showed that one in five people had put off an overseas trip in the last six months, 6 percent had delayed having a baby and another 5 percent had even postponed surgery until things got better.

And with the United States' economy still trying to shake off the credit crunch, Synovate's U.S.-based Claire Peerson Braverman said Americans, compared to other nationalities, were having to make some of the most difficult decisions concerning money.

"With the relatively high unemployment in the U.S., those Americans who have lost one or more incomes in the family are making very difficult decisions each day ... which bills do, and don't, get paid," she said.

Synovate, the market research arm of Aegis Group, surveyed 11,400 people in August across 16 markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Russia, Serbia, South Africa, Spain, Taiwan, Britain and the United States. More details at www.synovate.com.

Fox News: Opinions are Expressed Throughout Its Programming

Media Matters for America says Fox News is a full-time political operation, providing editorial opinions even on shows they claim to be unbiased news.

The watchdog group posted the video "Fox News: A 24/7 Political Operation" on YouTube to show how many of the opinions expressed in the editorial portions of the cable channel's broadcasting are echoed in the programs that are allegedly news.

According to an October 20, 2009 press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
CONTACT
Jess Levin (202) 772-8162
jlevin@mediamatters.org

Washington, D.C. - Today, after Fox News responded to White House criticism with the demonstrably false defense that, unlike the network's "editorial" programs, its "news" programs are straight and objective, Media Matters for America released a video demonstrating that Fox News' dayside programming unquestionably echoes the tones, themes, and content of its evening opinion programming. In fact, the parallels are so clear that the network's daytime anchors often seem to be taking direct marching orders from their colleagues like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity.

WATCH VIDEO HERE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRx5ethd8JU

BACKGROUND:

Fox News has responded to White House criticisms of its network by claiming that while its "editorial" programs are filled with "vibrant opinion," its news hours are straight and objective. However, Fox News' purportedly straight news programs often echo its "editorial" programs and feature smears, falsehoods, doctored and deceptive editing, and GOP talking points. Examples include:

*Hemmer advances smear that Jennings knew of "statutory rape" and "never reported it." During the October 1 edition of America's Newsroom, co-host Bill Hemmer joined his network's smears against Department of Education official Kevin Jennings by claiming that Jennings knew of a "statutory rape" case involving a student but "never reported it." In fact, as Media Matters has confirmed, the student in question was of legal age of consent at the time he was counseled by Jennings.

*Baier smears Jennings as failing to report "sexual abuse." On October 1, host Bret Baier joined Fox News' witch hunt against Jennings, claiming that "Education Secretary Arne Duncan is standing behind his so-called safe schools czar after revelations that Kevin Jennings did not report a case of sexual abuse he encountered as a schoolteacher."

*Kelly on Sotomayor comment: "sounds to a lot of people like reverse racism." On May 26, Megyn Kelly joined conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh by stating that then-Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor's "wise Latina" remark "sounds to a lot of people like reverse racism, basically. Like she's saying that Latina judges are obviously better than white male judges, and that that's her assumption, and people get worried about putting a person like that on the U.S. Supreme Court." Kelly later added, "I've looked at the entire speech that she was offering to see if that was taken out of context, and I have to tell you ... it wasn't." In fact, Sotomayor was specifically discussing the importance of diversity in adjudicating race and sex discrimination cases; several conservative legal figures have made similar comments.

*America's Newsroom promotes tea party organizing info on-air and online. America's Newsroom encouraged viewers to get involved with April 15 "tea party" protests across the country, which Fox News had described as primarily a response to President Obama's fiscal policies. The program frequently hosted tea party organizers and posted on-screen organizing information such as protest dates and locations. America's Newsroom also repeatedly directed viewers to its website, which featured a list of tea party protests.

*America's Newsroom promotes czar hysteria with ominous music. On September 7, Kelly teased a segment on whether the so-called "mainstream media" was ignoring "questionable backgrounds of some of the other 30-some-odd czars" in the Obama administration while ominous music played in the background.

*"Death book" distortions abound on Fox News Sunday. On the August 23 edition of Fox News Sunday, Chris Wallace hosted former Bush administration aide Jim Towey to discuss his Wall Street Journal op-ed, "The Death Book for Veterans," and in doing so promoted numerous distortions about an end-of-life educational booklet used by the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). In addition to forwarding the smear that the booklet is a "death book," Wallace promoted Towey's distortion that the booklet encourages veterans to "pull the plug" -- it doesn't; Wallace and Towey both suggested that the Bush administration suspended use of the booklet -- it didn't; and Wallace claimed that a VHA document requires doctors to direct veterans to the booklet -- it doesn't.

Media Matters president Eric Burns recently explained on Countdown with Keith Olbermann: "I think that what we have all thought of as a conservative news organization has really morphed itself this year into a 24/7 political operation with a very specific goal. And that is to destroy this presidency, and destroy any sort of progressive policy agenda that the American people voted for in November."