Buffett warns Obama U.S. economy only halfway back

Recent surveys suggest that U.S. citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with President Obama's leadership, primarily because unemployment remains high. What people fail to realize, however, is that economic recovery frequently takes time, regardless of the actions taken by political leaders. Billionaire Warren Buffett understands this and conveyed his feelings to the President.

Political leaders frequently receive too much blame for poor economic performance and too much credit for prosperity. A better understanding of the sources of economic growth might make public perceptions more accurate.

In the July 16 Reuters article "Buffett warns Obama U.S. economy only halfway back," Alister Bull summarizes Buffett's claim that the economic recovery will take time, regardless of the country's leadership.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama heard a sobering message from Warren Buffett when he asked for the investment guru's views about the economic recovery, according to an interview Obama gave NBC News on Thursday.

"I'll tell you exactly what Warren Buffett said. He said, 'We went through a wrenching recession. And so we have not fully recovered. We're about 40, 50 percent back. But we've still got a long way to go'," Obama told NBC during a visit to Holland, Michigan, to promote his job creation policies.

Obama chatted with Buffett in the Oval office on Wednesday as he sought ideas on how to translate higher U.S. growth into stronger hiring. This would help him deliver on an election year promise to tackle unemployment currently at 9.5 percent.

Buffett, who built an estimated $47 billion fortune running his insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc, warned Obama the recession created a huge overhang of excess capacity in the economy that would simply take time to mop up.

Obama said Buffett specifically used the example of the U.S. housing market, noting 1.2 million new homes were built on average per year in the United States, according to historic trends. That number soared above 2 million during the property bubble, but construction activity has since collapsed.

"What Warren pointed out was, look, we're gonna get back to 1.2 (million). But right now we're soaking up a whole bunch of inventory. So a lot of -- the challenge is to work our way through this recession," Obama said.

High unemployment is another type of excess economic capacity. Obama's Democrats risk severe punishment by voters in midterm congressional elections on November 2 if he fails to convince them stronger U.S. growth means better times ahead.

Timeless and Time-Tested Economic Lessons From Billionaire Warren Buffett

According to the December 11, 2009 CNBC article "Timeless and Time-Tested Lessons From Warren Buffett," economic recessions are inevitable and should be viewed as personal investment opportunities.

Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future.

Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.

Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever."After all,"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely."

With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.

Recessions Can't Be Avoided Forever

As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)

We'll Survive Current and Future Recessions Just as We've Survived Past Problems

As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008 and 2009): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."

Recessions Will Create Opportunities

"I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap."

All Stocks Won't Be Cheap

Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What's nice about investing is you don't have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don't have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"

The Crowd Will Make Mistakes

Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right-and that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else."

Investors Will Mistakenly Think Falling Stock Prices Are Bad

"If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."

Good Times Will Prompt Bad Decisions

In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history."

The Forbes 400: An Annual Survey of the Wealthiest People in the United States

The September 30, 2009 report of "The Forbes 400 Richest Americans" shows that the economic decline has affected even the wealthy:

Almost all of America's wealthiest citizens are poorer this year.

America's super rich are getting poorer. For only the fifth time since 1982, the collective net worth of The Forbes 400 — our annual tally of the nation's richest people — has declined, falling $300 billion in the past 12 months from $1.57 trillion to $1.27 trillion.

Faltering capital markets and real estate prices, along with divorce and fraud, pushed the fortunes of 314 members down and drove 32 plutocrats off the rankings.

Hurt the most: Warren Buffett, America's second-richest citizen. The Oracle of Omaha dropped $10 billion from his personal balance sheet as shares of Berkshire Hathaway fell 20% in 12 months. He is now worth $40 billion.

Beating out Buffett for the 16th straight year as America's richest man is Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates. Sluggish Microsoft shares and declining outside investments pushed the software visionary's net worth down $7 billion in 12 months.

Rounding out the top 10 on The Forbes 400: Oracle founder Larry Ellison ($27 billion); Wal-Mart heirs Christy Walton ($21.5 billion), Jim C. Walton ($19.6 billion), Alice Walton ($19.3 billion), and S. Robson Walton ($19 billion); media maven Michael Bloomberg ($17.5 billion) and energy titans Charles and David Koch ($16 billion each).

The 10 richest Americans lost a combined $39.2 billion in the past 12 months, a 14% decline.

Other big losers include casino mogul Kirk Kerkorian, whose nest egg shed $8.2 billion in the past year. Shares of his gambling giant MGM Mirage have fallen 90% from their October 2007 high.

Also hitting the brakes: Enterprise Rent-A-Car founder Jack C. Taylor. The rental car titan's fortune is down $7 billion in a year as the travel industry slows and private-company valuations fall.

The biggest gainer is banker Andrew Beal, who tripled his net worth to $4.5 billion buying up cheap loans and assets as the markets crumbled last fall.

Membership on the list was made easier as the price of admission dropped $350 million, from $1.3 billion last year to $950 million this year, paving the way for 19 new members and 19 returnees.

Newcomers to the list include Marvel Entertainment chief Isaac Perlmutter, whose net worth soared to $1.55 billion after Disney agreed to buy the superhero outfit in August for $4 billion in cash and stock.

Other new members include Bloomberg LP co-founder Charles Zegar ($1 billion), mapping-software magnate Jack Dangermond ($2 billion) and trading titan Steven Schonfeld ($1 billion).

Former New York lawyer and accountant Jeffry Picower makes his debut on The Forbes 400 with a net worth of $1 billion. A longtime investor with Bernard Madoff, he is likely worth billions more (Picower is alleged to have extracted billions of dollars from Madoff's fund before it collapsed).

Picower and his foundation are named in a lawsuit by the liquidator for Madoff's investment business, who is seeking to recover funds allegedly obtained through "fraudulent activity." Picower claims if he knew Madoff was a fraud he would not have transferred money into Madoff accounts.

In December 2008, the Picower Foundation shut down after losing its $1 billion endowment in Madoff's Ponzi scheme. The charity had given millions to MIT, Human Rights First and the New York Public Library. Picower made his first fortune selling medical device maker Alaris in 2004.

Among those returning is venture capitalist Michael Moritz, who rode Amazon's purchase of online shoe retailer Zappos and surging Google stock back onto the list.

Divorce forced Google exec Omid Kordestani from the rankings, while R. Allen Stanford lost his billionaire status when the feds froze his assets after charging him with allegedly running an $8 billion Ponzi scheme.

Several Forbes 400 mainstays also fell off the list, including former Citigroup czar Sanford Weill, mall developer Matthew Bucksbaum and condo kingpin Jorge Perez.

Six members died, including glass giant William Davidson and newspaper maven Frank Batten Sr.

The Forbes 400 is a snapshot of wealth on Sept. 10, 2009. Gap co-founder Donald Fisher, who ranks No. 296 on our list, died Sept. 27 at his home in San Francisco at age 81.

Personal Investments: Profit from Market Fluctuations

"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy. Profit from folly rather than participate in it."

- Warren Buffett