Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekers

In the November 5, 2009 article "Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekers," Associated Press business writers Martin Crutsinger and Stephen Manning suggest the recently reported increases in U.S. productivity could be detrimental to unemployed workers. This is the opposite conclusion from the one reported earlier in the day by Reuters writer Lucia Mutikani. Which conclusion should you believe? These productivity increases are not the result of increased capital investment (such as upgrading a computer network) or additional education that has improved the skills of U.S. workers. Thus, it is doubtful that they are sustainable. Employment increases are on the way.

WASHINGTON – Companies across the economy are finding ways to do more with fewer workers, dimming hopes that hiring will take off anytime soon.

Employers became leaner and more efficient in the third quarter. Wages, meantime, remain flat or falling. The result is that productivity — output per hour of work — jumped at the fastest pace in six years.

The good news for companies, though, may be bad news for the jobless. As long as companies can get their workers to produce more, they have little reason to hire — at least until consumer spending picks up. And the squeeze on incomes could depress consumer spending, putting the economic recovery at risk.

Still, some economists were encouraged by the productivity report. They say that eventually, employers won't be able to squeeze more from their staffs. They will then have to ramp up hiring — something that could happen next year, even though the jobless rate is expected to hit double digits.

Productivity rose at an annual rate of 9.5 percent in the July-September quarter, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was much better than the 6.4 percent gain economists had expected. Unit labor costs fell at a 5.2 percent rate.

While companies aren't doing much hiring, they're not cutting as many workers, either. The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in 10 months.

On Wall Street, the better-than-expected jobless claims report and an upbeat forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. buoyed investors. The Dow Jones industrial average added nearly 204 points to 10,005.96, and broader indexes also gained.

The 9.5 percent productivity rise followed a 6.9 percent surge in the second quarter and was the fastest since a 9.7 percent increase in the third quarter of 2003.

The gain reflected that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew for the first time in a year — at an annual rate of 3.5 percent. The higher output came as companies continued to lay off workers. That meant employers produced more with fewer workers.

The 5.2 percent drop in unit labor costs marked the third straight decline and was larger than the 4 percent decrease economists were expecting.

Productivity is the key ingredient to rising living standards. It lets companies pay their workers higher wages. Those increases tend to be financed by increased output, rather than higher costs for products.

But as they struggled with the recession, companies boosted productivity while continuing to lay off workers. Many produced more goods; others kept their output down but slashed costs. Companies kept wages down by freezing pay or imposing unpaid furloughs.

"Survival meant cutting costs as rapidly as possible and fulfilling orders with the fewest number of workers," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Some companies in hard-hit sectors have managed to boost productivity despite job cuts. They've had to find ways to stretch their remaining workers to keep up with demand.

Fein Tool North America, a Cincinnati company that supplies auto parts manufacturers, has cut about 100 workers, or 33 percent of its staff. But Fein president Ralph Hardt said the company can still fill its orders by using more overtime shifts and temporary workers.

"We are asking more of our people than ever before," he said.

Fein also has made technical changes, including increasing their presses' strokes per minute so they can stamp more metal.

Hardt said he plans to rehire once the economy picks up again. But he's hesitant to do so quickly.

"If I see signs of recovery, I am going to hire back, but I am going to be very prudent," he said.

Elsewhere, Union Pacific has found ways to reduce the number of crews it needs and is using more fuel-efficient locomotives. The rail company also rewarded train engineers who saved fuel on their routes with free gas cards for their personal vehicles, all while furloughing nearly 10 percent of its 45,000 workers.

Naroff said hiring could remain sluggish for months. But other analysts are more optimistic. They were encouraged by the productivity report, noting that companies are starting to reach the limits of how much they can produce with their shrunken work forces.

"We believe businesses will have to start to increase hours worked and payrolls around the turn of the year since they cannot expect their current work force to sustain such rapid productivity growth," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital.

The problem is that consumer demand could falter once the government removes the stimulus programs it has put in place, such as record-low interest rates and homebuyer tax credits. Companies could stop hiring if they think demand will slump again.

Temporary surges in labor productivity tend to follow the end of a downturn, said Cliff Waldman, an economist with trade group Manufacturers Alliance.

"You're having a turn in output from negative to positive with a significantly depleted labor force," he said. "It gives the illusion that productivity has increased. It's really just arithmetic more than reality."

In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for jobless benefits last week fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000. That's better than economists' estimates of 523,000.

Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of employers' willingness to hire new workers.

The four-week average of jobless claims, which smooths fluctuations, dropped to 523,750, its ninth straight decline. That's 135,000 below the peak for the recession, reached in early April.

Despite the improvement, initial claims remain well above the roughly 400,000 that economists say will signal job creation.

Another 4.1 million people claimed extended unemployment benefits in the week ended Oct. 17, the latest data available, an increase of about 100,000 from the previous week. Congress has added 53 weeks of emergency aid on top of the 26 weeks typically provided by states.

Still, as roughly 7,000 Americans run out of extended benefits every day, Congress has approved legislation that would add another 14 to 20 weeks. President Barack Obama is expected to sign the bill.

The National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group, estimates that up to 1.3 million people would exhaust their benefits without the extension.

Economists expect the nation lost a net total of 175,000 jobs last month, adding to the 7.2 million lost since the recession began in December 2007. And many expect the jobless rate could rise as high as 10.5 percent before the recovery gains enough steam to start pushing it down next summer.

Productivity surge signals job growth to follow

In the November 5, 2009 article "Productivity surge signals job growth to follow," Lucia Mutikani reports that recent increases in U.S. productivity may signal that businesses are ready to hire additional workers.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. business productivity grew at its fastest clip in six years in the third quarter and new claims for jobless aid fell to a 10-month low last week, suggesting the labor market may be starting to bottom out.

The Labor Department said on Thursday that productivity surged at a 9.5 percent annual rate, the quickest pace since the third quarter of 2003, as companies squeezed more output from a smaller pool of labor to hold the line on costs.

The Labor Department also reported that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 512,000 in the week ended October 31, the lowest level since early January. Markets had expected a decline to only 523,000, from the 530,000 reported in the prior week.

Some healing of the labor market is crucial to sustaining and strengthening the economy's recovery after its worst recession in 70 years, with employment key to underpinning consumer spending.

Analysts doubt that the rapid growth rate in productivity, which measures the hourly output per worker, can be sustained, which some analysts say means businesses may soon have to step up hiring to meet the demand for their goods and services.

"We expect the pace of efficiency gains will soon begin to fade," said Michelle Girard, a senior economist at RBS in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Having cut payrolls so dramatically during the last downturn, we believe that companies will be forced to add workers earlier in this recovery than was the case following the last two recessions."

U.S. stocks rallied on the data, driving up the three main indexes more than 1 percent higher in morning trade.

Financial markets had expected productivity to rise at a 6.4 percent rate. It grew at a 6.9 percent pace in the April-June period, when the economy was still contracting.

MUTED INFLATION PRESSURES

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held overnight interest rates close to zero percent and said it would keep them extraordinarily low as long as excess economic slack and a lack of inflation warning signs prevailed.

The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, driven largely by government stimulus.

The strong productivity report suggested little need to worry about inflation at this juncture.

Unit labor costs, a measure of the cost of labor for any given amount of production, fell 5.2 percent last quarter after declining 6.1 percent the previous period. Analysts had forecast a drop of only 4 percent.

"Heightened productivity, the shrinkage of unit labor costs improves prospects for hiring over the near term. It points toward wider profit margins, faster earnings growth and more hiring activity," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York.

Productivity in manufacturing rose at a record 13.6 percent rate in the third quarter, likely driven by automakers ramping up production to rebuild depleted stocks after the popular "cash for clunkers" program boosted sales.

Compensation per hour jumped at a 3.8 percent pace, but after adjustment for inflation it was up only 0.2 percent -- pointing to sluggish growth in incomes.

In the weekly jobs claims report, the four-week moving average for new benefit claims slipped 3,000 to 523,750 last week, the lowest in almost 10 months. The average, which is seen as a better gauge of underlying trends, has declined for nine straight weeks.

Still, claims remain high. Analysts say they need to drop below 400,000 to signal that the economy is creating jobs.

U.S. employers have cut 7.2 million workers from their payrolls since the economy fell into recession in December 2007, but the pace of job cuts has been easing.

While the Labor Department is expected to report on Friday that the decline in employment slowed further in October, the jobless rate is expected to rise to 9.9 percent, up from a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

There were further hints of labor market improvement in the data on Thursday. The number of people still on the jobless benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid dropped to the lowest level since March in the week ended October 24, the latest week for which data was available.

"The falling number of people on state unemployment insurance programs implies that the unemployment rate is probably approaching its peak. We look for the unemployment rate to peak around 10.2 percent in early 2010," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JP Morgan in New York.

Capital - the manufactured economic resources

In its broadest sense, capital is anything that increases productivity. Capital allows workers to produce more output with an hour of labor. Economists divide capital into four categories: physical capital, human capital, technology, and financial capital.

Physical capital is anything tangible and man-made that makes workers more productive. Examples of physical capital are computers, cars, pencils, microwave ovens, factories, and machinery. For example, a postal worker delivering mail to houses that are far apart can do it more efficiently with a truck rather than walking. In an hour of time, the mailman with a vehicle could deliver to more homes than the postal worker on foot.

Education and training also make most workers more productive. Human capital is the education, skills, and training that workers acquire that make them more productive. For example, skilled workers can construct more framing for a new building in an hour of time than the same number of unskilled workers. Similarly, a professionally trained nurse may be able to assist more patients in an hour at a hospital emergency room than someone without that education.

Technology is the knowledge and methodology of means of production. For example, sweaters can be knitted by hand or by factory machines. And the machines can be operated by people or controlled by computers. At a give point in time, some countries may have access to technologies, such as computer-controlled machinery, that are not available in other parts of the world. The adoption of new technologies often leads to an increase in productivity.

Financial capital is the money or other financial assets used to purchase the physical capital, human capital, and technology that make workers more productive. When a business considers increasing its physical capital, for example by buying machinery or building a new factory, it may not have enough money to pay for the entire purchase. Consequently, a business may need to raise financial capital in order to purchase physical capital. For relatively small purchases of physical capital, businesses may be able to use retained earnings as the source of financial capital. Retained earnings are the portion of a company’s profits that are not distributed to the owners of the business. For relatively large purchases of physical capital, businesses may borrow financial capital. The most common example of this is a business loan from a commercial bank. Corporations have two other options for raising financial capital, however. Corporations can issue corporate bonds, in which they borrow money directly from the public without using commercial banks as financial intermediaries. A bond is a financial asset that represents a loan from the purchaser of the bond to the issuer of the bond. Purchasers of bonds are lending money to the issuers of the bonds. Corporations also can raise financial capital by selling additional shares of stock. A stock is a financial asset that represents a share of ownership of a corporation. The owners of stock are called stockholders. A dividend is the share of corporate profit that is distributed to each stockholder.

The word capital is often used to refer to human capital, physical capital, technology, or financial capital. The correct meaning of the word is determined by the context of its usage.

Labor - the human economic resources

Economic resources are the things people use to attempt to satisfy their needs and wants. They can be divided into three categories: labor, capital, and natural resources.


Labor – the human economic resources

Labor is human effort, both physical and mental. People use their time and effort to produce things that are useful to themselves or others. Examples of labor are teachers, bankers, construction workers, steelworkers, plumbers, entrepreneurs, and managers.

Economists use various terms to describe different types of labor. A white-collar workertypically performs work that does not involve manual labor, is paid an annual salary instead of hourly wages, and is expected to dress with some formality. Examples of white-collar workers are business executives, stockbrokers, insurance salespeople, bankers, and lawyers. The origin of the expression is that men in these professions traditionally wear a white dress shirt, suit, and tie to work. White-collar workers are often associated with the service sector, which is the area of the economy that does not result in the production of a tangible commodity. A tangible commodity is a product that can be touched or held, such as an apple, a sweater, or a house.

A blue-collar worker typically performs work that involves manual labor, is paid hourly wages, and dresses in clothes that may become heavily soiled. Examples of blue-collar workers are automobile mechanics, garbage collectors, and construction workers. The origin of the expression is that men in these professions often wear a uniform with a blue shirt. Blue-collared workers are often associated with the manufacturing sector, which is the area of the economy that produces tangible commodities.

The Rust Belt is the heavily industrialized area of the upper Midwestern U.S. that contains older factories, many of which are closed. Manufacturing jobs in industries such as automobiles, steel, and coal mining used to be a significant source of employment in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Over the last few decades, Americans have increasingly preferred to buy manufactured products from cheaper foreign producers.

It is normal for there to be changes in the types of industries that are the most successful in a particular economy. Silicon Valley is a region southeast of San Francisco, California, which is known for its computer and other high-technology industries. These American industries flourished in the 1990s, but have faced increasing foreign competition in recent years.

There is a relationship between education, skills, training, and productivity. Productivity is the amount of output that can be produced in an hour of a worker’s time. Increases in education, skills, and training are usually associated with increases in productivity. As people become more productive, businesses are usually willing to pay them more. To illustrate this concept, consider two salespeople. If one person sells $50,000 worth of a company’s products per year while another person generates $1 million of sales per year, who is more deserving of higher pay? Salespeople are usually paid a commission, which means they are paid based on the value of their sales. Consequently, companies usually pay salespeople more when they generate more sales.

This relationship between education and productivity also explains why most students attend college. As people become better educated, they tend to become more productive. More productive people tend to earn higher incomes. Consequently the most frequently cited reason for attending college is to enable people to obtain a better, higher-paying job than would occur in the absence of the education.

Education, skills, and training are sometimes referred to as human capital.